Monday, September 13, 2010

A Long Slog

Folks are calling this the Great Recession, perhaps they're right. Gjerstad and Smith have a short article for The Wall Street Journal that makes an interesting point about our current downturn.

Looking at all recessions since World War II, their research shows that the economy doesn't recover until the housing market recovers. Unfortunately, they see no signs of this happening soon. Speaking of the current situation, they conclude:
This is the slowest rebound in residential construction in any sustained recovery from a postwar recession. No currently debated policy will likely change this situation, as the market is saturated with foreclosed houses and homeowners suffer from $771 billion in negative equity. This fact needs to be confronted: We are almost surely in for a long slog.
On the other hand, it has to be a great time to buy a house.