Friday, July 8, 2011

Future of the Euro

Go here in the London Review of Books to read an analysis of the special role Germany must play if the euro is to survive as Europe's currency. It is, particularly, a role the German taxpayer does not relish. For example:
The German economy is too big and too powerful for the health of its neighbours, unless European monetary policy is somehow ameliorated to help the smaller, weaker countries stay in step. Interest rates which, during the first decade of the euro’s existence, suited German manufacturers, caused toxic credit bubbles to grow in Greece and Ireland and Spain. The consequences of those credit bubbles could take another decade to unwind, ten years of hard times for the citizens of those countries, who will spend most of it sweating to earn the tax money to pay back the German banks whose lending fuelled their bubble.

The signs are that the German electorate is becoming steadily less eager to go along with it. (snip) If the German taxpayer manages, however grudgingly, to accept that it’s her duty to shoulder the burden, the euro will muddle through. But it won’t be pretty.