Saturday, August 20, 2011

Worst Case = Baseline

James Pethokoukis, who writes Money & Politics for Reuters, has a very gloomy take on Obama's prospects for reelection:
The White House’s worst-case scenario for the economy on Election Day next year has become Wall Street’s baseline scenario.
He explains what this means in no uncertain terms:
If a) the economic forecasts of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are accurate, and b) voters behave as they usually do during bad economic times, then c) Barack Obama will be a one-term president.
See the rest of his good article.