Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Israel-Iran War?

Benny Morris writes in The National Interest that Israel is getting quite close to making an attack on Iran, perhaps as soon as the end of 2011. He sees the IAEA's recent pronouncements on Iranian nuclear weapon-making as the deciding factor.

Noting that Israel will probably not warn the U.S. in advance of an attack, Morris nevertheless believes the U.S. will aid Israel after the fact and gives several reasons why he believes this is so.

Morris omits the most determinative reason: because the Iranians will consider an Israeli attack as a joint attack by the U.S. and Israel and will retaliate accordingly. U.S. assets in the region will be attacked by Iran and its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas. The U.S. will not have the option of remaining out of the fighting.