Sunday, November 27, 2011

Shaky Analysis

You will see articles, like this one in The New York Times, that allege the suburbs are in permanent decline. Don't rush to accept the judgment.

It may be an accurate prediction, or it may not. COTTonLINE suspects "not." In any event, wait until the economy returns to prosperity, which may take several years.

Announcing a new housing pattern in the throes of the worst economic downturn we've experienced since the 1930s, is like announcing someone is in poor health because they have the flu. It mistakes the temporary for the permanent.

If we return to several years of prosperity and yet people still avoid the suburbs and exurbs, then it will be time to announce the arrival of a new, more urban housing trend. Not now.