Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Iowa Has Spoken

The Iowa results are in: Romney 25%, Santorum 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 5%, and Huntsman 1%. Romney beat Santorum by something like 8 votes to be the technical winner, effectively they tied.

Santorum benefited by having the last "surge" before the caucuses occurred. Huntsman can shrug off these results as he did not campaign in Iowa. However he'd better do well in New Hampshire if he plans to continue in the race.

The Iowa GOP can breathe a sigh of relief that Ron Paul did not win; that would have been a mess. An analysis of Paul supporters could suggest whether they are likely to vote and for whom when once again their guy isn't the nominee.

What I find amazing is that the top two finishers only split half the votes between them. Fully half of Iowa's Republicans wanted someone other than Romney or Santorum. Almost thirty percent of the Iowa GOP went for one of the last four finishers, the also-rans.

I believe this is more evidence, if anyone needed it, that many GOP voters aren't in love with the choices available this year. The 2012 ballot is going to be a vote against rather than a vote for. Voters will go for the new guy because they're tired of the old guy.