Thursday, January 5, 2012

Top Ten Risks for 2012

The Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting group, has released their top ten list of "things to worry about" for 2012. Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.

Six of their items are unexceptionable, including the following: the Eurozone, North Korea, Pakistan, China, Egypt, and Venezuela. If you've been paying attention to the world you know these are areas of concern.

Others they list need some explanation: the end of the 9/11 era, G-Zero and the Middle East, the United States, and South Africa. Their paper gives the reasoning for each.

I particularly like their idea of G-Zero, "the inability/unwillingness of major powers to take on new risks and burdens." They see this being particularly relevant to current political turmoil in the Middle East. I believe it is relevant to troubles in Africa as well. It isn't clear how they square the recent NATO involvement in Libya with G-Zero.

To their list of ten I would add the terrorist troubles brewing in Nigeria, a major oil producer. The drug cartel wars in Mexico are also problematic. If I had to pick a wild card it would be the odd nationalistic things happening in Hungary.

On the other hand, I would subtract the United States from their list. Whatever happens politically, the U.S. will muddle through economically. It continues to be the world's economic refuge, the place where money is sent to be more-or-less safe.