A New Political Barometer

Conservative source Investors' Business Daily has come up with a market-driven index that predicts whether or not an incumbent president will be reelected. The last time the Job Index Barometer (JIB) didn't work was 80 years ago, in 1932!

How does it work? When one of three indices (Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq) makes a big gain in January, roughly 6% or more, the incumbent loses. When the gain is less than that, or there's a loss, the incumbent wins. They conclude:

This January the Nasdaq rose 8%, signaling a loss for President Obama, according to the IBD JIB.