Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Cold War 2.0

Admit it. You've been missing the Cold War, the simplicity of a bipolar world, in which people are either for us or against us. Pine for the Cold War no longer, those good, old days are baaaaack!

Minus Cold War 1.0's Marxist ideological trappings, Cold War 2.0 features the national interests of the U.S. and its allies versus those of Russia allied with whomever in the world wishes the U.S. ill.

Let's examine who may make common cause with Putin's Russia. The most interesting possibility is China, Russia's next-door neighbor. In terms of lack of concern for human rights and political freedoms, China and Russia tend to agree. Also, the old "enemy of my enemy is my friend" idea draws them together.

On the other hand, the largest market for Chinese manufacturers is the U.S. and China values U.S. luxury goods more highly than Russian goods. I expect China to be an on-again, off-again ally of Russia, but an ally with its own independent interests and goals.

Worried about an aggressive China, many of its Asian neighbors cling to U.S. skirts. It isn't clear if this alignment is of aid to the U.S., or merely a burden. Ditto a Europe worried about Russian expansionism.

If the Islamic world could ever get past the on-going Sunni-Shia "civil war" it would probably align with Russia. The confessional conflict, however, shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Today the Shia align with Russia while many Sunnis side with the U.S., albeit weakly and with mixed feelings.

Latin America is similarly divided, the economic winners are to varying degrees U.S. friends: Chile, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica. The others - Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina - tend to see the U.S. as "the problem" and are thus potential Russian allies.