Saturday, May 3, 2014

Understanding April Jobs Data

The best explanation I've seen of the jobs data released yesterday by the U.S. government comes from the website of a British newspaper, The Telegraph. Author Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes that, contrary to the rosy spin given the numbers by President Obama and his claque, the results are relatively dismal. His reading:
Non-Farm Payrolls data released on Friday shows that the workforce shed 806,000 jobs in April, a stunning drop that cannot plausibly be blamed on the weather. Wage growth and hours worked were both flat and the manufacturing hours per week fell.

This follows news earlier in the week that the economy (came) to a halt in the first quarter. Growth plummeted to 0.1pc and is now well below the Fed’s “stall speed” indicator.

The headline unemployment rate fell to 6.3pc but that was only because the labour “participation rate” plummeted back to a modern-era low of 62.8pc, last seen in 1978 when there were far fewer women in the workforce. The rate for males is the lowest ever recorded at 69.1pc.
The labor participation rate for males is at an all-time low? This can't be good news. Evidence suggests many who have been out of work for over 6 months will never again hold down regular, full-time employment. You and I will pay for their care and feeding, one way or another.