Saturday, August 30, 2014

The Wrong Rx

Writing in the Fiscal Times, Andrew L. Peek argues that Ukraine should utilize Taliban-like insurgency methods against the invading Russians. I hope you see the major fallacy in his reasoning.

The Taliban can do what they do because many, if not most, of the Afghan locals are either on their side or at least somewhat disposed to wish invading foreigners ill. In eastern Ukraine most residents are Russian-speakers who feel more Russian than Ukrainian.

As such, they don't view Russian troops as "invading foreigners" but as defenders against the Kyiv government. Not only are they unlikely to cooperate in Ukrainian IED placement but happy to rat out whatever few Kyiv-loyal neighbors they have who might aid an insurgency.

Sorry, Taliban-style insurgency won't work when the natives aren't sympathetic to your cause. This thought is not original with COTTonLINE, it's often attributed to Chairman Mao. Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.