What Trende has written seems even-handed and fair. His conclusion, after considering a variety of data points and historical trends: it's too early to know with any certainty whether to expect a wave. He does expect the GOP to do well, a common conclusion.
Meanwhile, number cruncher Nate Silver whose FiveThirtyEight blog was highly accurate in 2012, gives the GOP a 64% chance of taking control of the Senate. His reasoning is persuasive, including the following of which I was unaware:
The Senate contests this year are in states where, on average, President Obama won just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.And, if anything, he is even less popular there today.
