Saturday, October 4, 2014

Reading the Tea Leaves

The midterm election happens one month from today, on Tuesday, November 4. One month out, how do prospects look for giving the Democrats in general, and President Obama in particular, a nasty case of heartburn?

The Hill reports that things are looking better for the GOP in the Senate. They write:
The GOP is all but certain to win open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Their candidates have also pulled into dead heats or slight leads against red-state Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), leaving the party feeling bullish.

They’ve taken a small lead in an open-seat Iowa battle between Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) and Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) that Democrats likely can’t afford to lose. Republicans are also neck-and-neck in Colorado, where Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) has closed in on Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.).
Meanwhile, in House races, they find a similar pattern:
Democrats are largely in retrenchment mode as they look to protect some incumbents they’d hoped would be in good shape and at this point are trying to hold any GOP gains to a minimum.

Both sides privately agree that Republicans will likely pick up a half-dozen seats on Election Day, and possibly more.