Monday, December 8, 2014

Handicapping the Field

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake take an early look at who might be the GOP presidential nominee in 2016. They disclaim commitment to their choices, as they should.

Rand Paul is their top choice, I don't believe his intermittent isolationism will sell. Their second choice is Chris Christie, I don't see his NJ bluster working with our base and he probably couldn't carry his own state. Third is Jeb Bush, his views on immigration and Common Core won't be popular. 

Fourth is Marco Rubio, he has immigration problems too. Fifth is Scott Walker, he has a charisma deficit but his policies are popular. Sixth is John Kasich, again a charisma deficit and maybe soft on Obamacare but he could likely carry key Ohio.

Seventh is Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Louisiana. He doesn't have a lot of name recognition. Eighth is Ted Cruz, a firebrand the party establishment won't support. Ninth is Mike Huckabee, one of the best natural campaigners I ever saw, but he doesn't love the nitty gritty of fund raising and organizing. Tenth is Paul Ryan, former VP candidate, who they note seems very happy in the House.

Every one of these gentlemen has a drawback, some more than one. Some aren't acceptable to the base, others not to the establishment with the money. Not that likely rival Hillary has much to offer voters beyond being the not-Obama Democrat, which is definitely a plus.