Thursday, September 24, 2015

Unsettled Science

Mike Jonas writes at Watts Up With That about climate models; how much is known (some), how much is unknown or uncertain (a lot), and therefore why climate models do a crappy job of prediction. His presentation is detailed. 

The method to date: tweak the estimates of the impacts of unknowns in the model until it "predicts" what happened in the past, then project into the future. The results to date: overestimation of future warming.

Obvious conclusion: we don't know enough to predict future climate, not even close. That makes current "predictions" more religion than science: statements about their promulgators' beliefs, not about their knowledge.