Monday, January 4, 2016

10 Challenges for 2016

The Daily Telegraph (U.K.) reports the predictions of The Eurasia Group which makes annual forecasts of the world's 10 most troubling issues for the year ahead. I don't find much to argue with in their list. Their headings:

The Hollow Alliance - the U.S. and Europe drift apart.
Closed Europe - overthrow of Schengen.
The China Footprint - unpredictability.
ISIS and "Friends" - no effective counter-strategy.
Saudi Arabia - conflict between royals.
The Rise of Technologists - mega-billionaires with attitude.
Unpredictable Leaders - Putin, Erdogan, and more.
Brazil - economic turmoil, political weakness.
Not Enough Elections - in emerging nations.
Turkey - slip-sliding toward autocracy, next door to ISIS.

The one factor the article underplays is the rise of populist nationalism - mostly on the right - in Europe and the U.S. It isn't clear whether the new nationalists are merely noisy, or actually developing a majority. "Elites ignoring the wishes of the governed" is the root cause of such movements, in both Europe and the U.S.