Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Thoughts About Iowa

The Iowa caucuses are behind us, we go on to New Hampshire. Time to take a moment and summarize what we've learned.

First, Trump will not "run the table." There was talk he'd win IA and NH and then be unstoppable. It didn't happen. The race goes on.

Second, corn-raising Iowa was supposed to be wedded to ethanol and to the politicians who endorse it, pandering to them. Cruz opposed the ethanol requirement and won Iowa, it's another piece of conventional wisdom destroyed.

Third, "establishment" Republican voters are coalescing around Marco Rubio as predicted, albeit sooner than expected. This tends to cast a dark shadow on the hopes of Kasich and Christie for a strong second-place finish in NH.

Fourth, the Hillary "coronation" appears to be something less than a sure thing. She seems to have won a photo finish with Sanders, winning by 0.2% at last report. Sanders is projected to win NH, so that race continues.

Fifth, following NH most GOP aspirants should "suspend" their campaigns. Likely some will do so before NH.  After the so-called SEC primary on March 1 the fields should be down to an establishment candidate and an insurgent candidate in each party, the Dems are already there.