Friday, March 4, 2016

The Future of Syria

Writing for RealClearWorld, Aaron David Miller looks at possible outcomes in Syria, what remains possible and what is no longer achievable. He concludes four things:
Assad will stay in office.
A unified, cohesive Syria is dead.
Arabs and Turks will not come to the rescue.
The U.S. will not much increase our intervention.
About this latter point, Miller elaborates:
If there ever were really good options in Syria, there aren't anymore. Iran and even Russia are willing to sacrifice quite a lot to protect what they believe are their vital interests. The United States is not, and that should be clear by now.
Bottom line: the U.S. has no Syrian "vital interests" to protect. A nation that wills an end must also will its means, which the U.S. won't do.

Unlike Russia, the U.S. is temperamentally unsuited to commit the genocidal slaughter necessary to defeat insurgencies. It should therefore avoid involvement therein (c.f., Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan).