Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Brexit Leads (or Not)

The vote in Britain concerning whether or not to exit the European Union, an act generally called "Brexit," happens on June 23, just over two weeks from now. I've seen various predictions and polling results showing one side or the other will win narrowly.

The Telegraph reports narrow margins favoring leaving, and even more telling:
Voters are so open to the idea of Brexit now that when YouGov asked them how they would vote if Brexit would leave them £100 a year worse off, Leave was still two points ahead.
Since non-members Norway and Switzerland are doing well, it is hard to argue Brexit would be an economic catastrophe. The following has relevance to our presidential election:
Polling by Opinium suggests they are pushing the right issues, finding that voters ranked "immigration to the UK" as the issue that will most affect how they vote.

Leave's domination on the issue shows no signs of waning as the pollster found that 50 per cent of those surveyed thought leaving would give Britain "more control over immigration", while just 12 per cent said the same about remaining.
Clearly, the issue of immigration also has great salience in our November election, hence Trump. The underlying principle is that one normally has great latitude in deciding who to invite into one's home ... or nation.