Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT WINS

CNN has reported the "Leave" side has won the so-called "Brexit" election, Britain will leave the European Union. The United Kingdom has always been a somewhat halfhearted EU member, never joining the Euro zone or the Schengen group.

The Scots preferred "Remain" as did Northern Ireland. Wales, on the other hand, voted with England to "Leave." There is already talk that Scotland will seek another referendum on dissolving its bonds with England so that it can then join the EU. The only part of England voting Remain was London, much of which is no longer ethnically English.

The vote wasn't particularly close, Leave got over a million more votes than did Remain. Prime Minister David Cameron campaigned hard for Remain, and lost. If he doesn't treat this as a lost vote of confidence, his party should send him packing.

The issue powering Leave has been variously described as unchecked immigration and nationalism. You can make an argument these two factors are in fact highly interrelated.

Much ink will be devoted to the question of Brexit's relevance to American politics. My own sense is that the feelings underpinning Leave are quite similar to the feelings of Trump supporters.

This augury cannot be a happy one for Team Clinton. The zeitgeist is not with her and globalism, it's with Trump and nationalism.

A longer-term question is the fate of the remaining EU minus the U.K.  I expect to see more anti-EU agitation in France, perhaps in Italy as well. The Dutch have already spoken of a referendum like the Brexit vote. Don't be surprised if Putin finds a way to exploit the resulting turmoil.