Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Colombia Update

On Sunday last, we wrote about the peace deal - between Colombia and the FARC rebels - losing a national referendum by a narrow margin. At the time not much was known about the unexpected loss.

Along comes Michael J. Totten who blogs at World Affairs Journal with a discussion of what appears to have been at stake. He believes a too-generous deal giving away too much to the surrendering rebels caused the negative vote.

Totten is of the opinion in the days ahead the FARC will agree to a less-generous deal, which should pass easily. He doesn't expect renewed hostilities.

I take the view that Murphy's Law also applies in warfare and diplomacy. Something has already gone wrong - losing the referendum - and it's likely something else will go sideways.