Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Multiple Interpretations

It is reported the Russian government has ordered home relatives of government officials who are traveling, studying, or living overseas. The instructions say such individuals should not stay to the end of the school term but come home now. See for example this article in the Daily Mail (U.K.).

Western sources tend to spin this as being preparation for impending war, as the Mail does. Of course war is possible, although unlikely.

I have seen other sources which paint this as being driven by conflicting messages. On the one hand, the Russian government calls the West depraved and evil, while on the other hand the children of its officials choose to come here to study and/or live.

You can see how the "West is evil and depraved" meme is undercut if privileged Russians want to come here to study or live. Does the average Russian believe their words, or does he find their actions more persuasive?

Be clear, COTTonLINE claims no special knowledge of when the next war will break out; that's "when," not "if." There certainly must be a terrible temptation to go to war before the feckless Obama leaves office next January.

While the relative strengths of Russia and the West suggest otherwise, Pearl Harbor is a vivid reminder that a weak opponent sometimes strikes out of a fear of growing even weaker as time passes. Might Putin hold that view? It isn't impossible.