Sunday, October 2, 2016

WSJ: Four Verities

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Matthew J. Dowd states what he sees as four verities about the current presidential race, and they are hard to argue with.
The stability of this general election has been profound.

This presidential election is not going to be decided by tactical moves.

Mr. Trump remains as undisciplined as when he first came down the escalator in June 2015 to announce his candidacy.

Mrs. Clinton hasn’t been able to make an effective “change” argument or fix her liabilities of trust and likability, which have allowed Mr. Trump to stay within a field goal in polling.
Everything both have done has changed few minds - all the money she's spent, all the outrageous stuff he's said - has resulted in very little effect on the overall numbers. There have been gaffes aplenty on both sides, both are seriously flawed candidates, but the numbers don't move much. Truth be told, there are few "undecideds." The bottom line will be turnout, and there are reasons to believe it may favor Trump.

A tangential thought. While manufacturing jobs (mostly male) have gone overseas, many large employers of women remain here. For example, every doctor's office you enter employs several women, few if any men. Ditto for dentists, insurance offices, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, etc.

Could this disparity in job availability explain some of the gender gap in politics? Employed women may be happier with the status quo than un- or underemployed men. Clinton is the status quo candidate, Trump is the change candidate.