Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The Bradley Effect Lives

Posting at The Washington Post's political blog, The Fix, Aaron Blake asks and answers this question:
Who likes President Obama and voted for Donald Trump? Lots of people.
It's a good question Blake asks, I take exception only to his answer. My guess is that the actual answer is relatively few people.

Blake explains the President's relatively high approval numbers and the large vote Trump earned by imagining many people who like Obama voting for Trump.

I have an alternate spin which also explains that same apparent contradiction. I believe the President's consistently high approval numbers are a Bradley Effect artifact, not in all cases representing genuine approval.

Some people fear being viewed as racists if they say they don't approve of Obama. The socially desirable answer to the question, "Do you approve of President Obama's performance in office?" is "Yes." It is the answer no one is likely to ask you to justify, or take exception to on racial grounds.

Therefore some fraction of responders will falsely answer "Yes" when a true answer would be "No." People who answer insincerely might be predisposed to vote for Trump.