Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Missing Whites Found ... by Trump

Twice in 2013 we wrote about analyst Sean Trende's finding that six million non-college whites in the upper Midwest sat out the 2012 election, voted for neither Obama nor Romney. See those comments here and here.

Now David Byler writes for RealClearPolitics that Trump won by turning out exactly this group in large numbers, without mentioning Trende's finding from four years ago. Essentially in 2016 Trump energized the northern white working class vote; in 2012 Romney did not, while Obama could not.

Byler should have referenced Trende's earlier finding, with which he is certainly familiar. Perhaps the chapter from which Byler excerpted this column includes reference to Trende's earlier, highly relevant finding.