Sunday, January 14, 2018

Afterthoughts

We wrote yesterday about the missile attack false alarm in Hawaii. I’ve been musing about how living through that trauma will change people’s lives? Will some experience PTSD, will others turn to religion, or to drink? Will tourists and/or residents choose to go elsewhere? Will the State of Hawaii be sued successfully for damages?

The other DrC just read aloud an email account by a tourist couple who were in HI. They went through the whole “this might be our end” mental process including saying “good-byes” to each other during the half hour or so until it was announced a false alarm.

I’m social scientist enough to see what happened there as a huge natural experiment. Researchers can compare the baseline data from before the EMERGENCY ALERT with that collected afterwards for HI and for several comparison states. To the extent to which outcomes are different in HI than elsewhere, those changes can tentatively be attributed to this seeming “near death” experience.

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If you haven’t experienced one, the “notify all cell phones” alerts really do work, really get your attention. We recently experienced a couple of them during the big storm that devastated wealthy Montecito, near Santa Barbara, and closed the US 101 coast highway with mudslides.

Given that people died in their beds, more than a few folks in the danger zone willfully ignored the alerts. Fortunately, we’re located a few miles away as the crow flies, in an area of essentially no risk.