Thursday, July 1, 2010

Grognards

Jonathan Last has written an interesting article about war games and the "grognards" who play them. It appears in the The Wall Street Journal. As he accurately notes, chess was among the earliest of war games.

In the early 1980s I had the opportunity of playing Diplomacy, another game he mentions. I was introduced to it by a colleague, Norm Pendegraft, a rare academic conservative. I chose to play as the then-extant Soviet Union.

This game was a very interesting experience; one which forever changed my understanding of the Russian mindset. My task was to imagine I was the Russian General Staff, sitting in Moscow looking at the nation's borders, wondering how to defend the Rodina or Motherland.

Russia is enormous, the world's largest country. It therefore has extremely long borders. It shares a lot of border with Turkey and other ethnically Turkish countries. In the days of a strong Ottoman Empire, Russia worried about defending against the Turks. More recently, the threat has twice come from Europe, first Napoleon and then Hitler.

Today, the Russian generals worry about defending against the People's Liberation Army of China. The PLA is the world's largest military with upwards of two million people on active duty, roughly twice that of Russia.

Neighbor China is the most populous nation on earth, with over one billion people. Most Russians live in the other end of Russia, near Europe. Immediately north of China is Russian Siberia, with very few people and a lot of natural resources.

If China ever decides to have 5-10% of their population march north with rifles and shovels on their shoulders, there isn't much doubt that Siberia becomes part of China. To prevent this happening, Russia would need to commit large scale genocide with nuclear weapons. I suspect the Russians' probable willingness to do this is the only thing that keeps the Chinese at home.

Did the Soviet Union, or today Russia, really worry about invasion by the U.S. and Europe? I don't think so, even though they talk about it. The Soviets did worry about successfully invading Europe in order to spread the gospels of Marx and Lenin, and about the U.S. ability to resist these missionary efforts.