Yogi’s Blond Cousins

There has been much written about global warming endangering Ursus maritimus, aka polar bears. As the sea ice retreats their ability to hunt basking seals - their main food diminishes.

On the other hand, recent findings from Svalbard suggest at least some the local big white carnivores are fatter than ever. This is triggering speculation about how this can happen. Hat tip to RealClearScience for the link.

It is also well known that Ursus maritimus and Ursus arctos (brown or grizzly bears) are closely related. They can and do interbreed and the offspring are, I believe, fertile.

Brown bears are well known omnivores, I’ve watched them sit in a patch of flowers happily eating the blossoms, but they’ll also kill and eat moose, reindeer, hibernating ground rodents, and spawning salmon.

If brown bears are omnivores, might not polar bears diversify their diet to include birds, eggs, and land animals too? I think they might, and some evidence suggests they do. I believe they’ve been known to raid the garbage dump at Churchill, Manitoba.

Alas, there are no panserbjørne, hat tip to Philip Pullman for their charming portrait.

Affordability and Illegal Immigration

Affordability means prices low enough you can pay them without pain. Economics teaches us prices are set by the interaction of supply and demand. When demand is high relative to supply, prices rise. When demand is less than supply, prices fall. That is Econ 101.

Recently we have stopped taking in illegal aliens (who increase demand) and began deporting them, voluntarily or otherwise (lowering demand). As this article points out, rents have declined as vacancies are slower to fill. Some 2.5 million mouths are no longer demanding food here, easing pressure on grocery prices.

The deportations have reduced the supply of labor, relative to demand. So wages have risen, especially in trucking and construction, fields which have employed many illegal aliens. Many of those now departed were receiving welfare, reducing pressures on government to increase spending.

For American citizens, the more illegal aliens we can squeeze out of our society, the more affordable life will be for those who remain. As noted below, who loses are the Democratic machine politicians in our big cities, slumlords, plus construction and trucking firms. Who wins? Everyone else. But don’t expect the losers to give up without a fight, as in Minnesota.

Reason to Celebrate

We’ve commented often about the migratory population shifts happening within the US, mostly from Democrat-dominated states to Republican-dominated states. This morning brings an excellent City Journal article which fairly bristles with statistics making that exact point. Hat tip to RealClearPolicy for the link.

It is even true that birth rates - number of children per adult woman - are higher in red states. This migration implements the Curley effect on a national scale, entrenching Democrats ever more strongly in the states now losing population.

Some are calling this process the Great Sort, as we Americans sort ourselves out ideologically into polities following quite different paths. And with the sort causing blue states to lose congressional seats, and an inflow of census-counted illegal aliens helping to stem that loss, we have an explanation for the otherwise counterintuitive Biden open-borders policy.

If demographics is destiny, we conservatives have reason to celebrate.

Malpractice

I do a lot of scanning and reading as prep for this blog, and I enjoy doing it. One thing I don't enjoy is when article titles turn out to be non-descriptive of the article they label.

A recent misleading example from the RealClear group of websites is the following. First the article title: "Warning: Winter Surgeries and the Frail Patient." I took that to mean they'd found out it was dangerous to schedule surgery for frail patients during winter, meaning winter posed additional risks.

So I read the article and found out winter posed no risks. Winter was only mentioned because people are more likely to schedule elective surgeries (hip or knee replacements, etc.) then, possibly because they will be shut in anyway because of cold weather.

That is only one example, I often see titles claiming an answer to the question of "why" some phenomenon does or does not occur, only to find the article describes the phenomenon, demonstrates it is common, and leaves it at that. I'd estimate I see one of those every couple of weeks.

It is a form of bait and switch, and it leaves me feeling like Charley Brown when Lucy whisks the football away. It is hard to know who to blame, sometimes the editor will rename a column and sometimes it's the author's fault. 

Whoever is responsible, I'd sure love it to stop.

The Key: Who Decides

I have repeatedly made the argument that V. Putin fears he cannot survive the Ukraine war without a victory. I’ll admit I haven’t made the same claim about V. Zelensky, but perhaps I should have.

Writing at The American Conservative, Ted Snider argues that Zelensky believes being defeated on the battlefield is preferable to losing at the peace table. Honestly, I think he makes a pretty good case for that conclusion.

The gist of Snider’s argument is that Zelensky can blame defeat on the US and Europe, both of which have been less-than-wholehearted in their support of Ukraine’s fight. Whereas, he cannot blame them if he agrees to a peace that gives Russia all of their present ill-gotten gains, getting in return only a cessation of hostilities. 

If Snider is correct, as I suspect he is, then neither Putin nor Zelensky can afford to make peace. The meat grinder war will continue, not because that is best for either nation, but because that is best for both leaders. 

It is possible the people of both nations would prefer a simple cessation of hostilities in place and an end to the dying and maiming. However, they are not the ones deciding.

Tuesday Snark

Interesting shadow.

Image courtesy of News Ammo.

Geography Is Still Destiny

Longtime readers know I believe a knowledge of geography is important in understanding our world. A quick search of this blog's entries finds I've mentioned it many times.

Here is a longish column in the bulletin of the American Enterprise Institute think-tank which, among other things, shows how geography explains the salience of both Ukraine and Taiwan in influencing the policies of their neighbors.

It is unfortunate that geography is little taught in recent years. I believe that lack to be a policy failure.

Huntington … a Prophet

Writing at Civitas Outlook, Graham McAleer harks back to Samuel Huntington’s book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (1996), and surfaces this Huntington quote.

The dangerous clashes of the future are likely to arise from the interaction of Western arrogance, Islamic intolerance, and Sinic assertiveness.

Not a bad prophet, was Professor Samuel Huntington. Thirty years later, our main adversaries are militant Islamism and the PRC. 

The Trump Era

Opinion columnist Gary Abernathy served the same “token enemy” role on PBS that Jessica Tarlov or Juan Williams serve on Fox News. The job is to rep the opposition viewpoint w/o making the main folks look bad. CNN’s Scott Jennings doesn’t “get” the second part of that job description.

Abernathy writes a Substack column about the filthy, disgusting, even threatening hate email he gets from PBS viewers. He attributes the vitriol to Trump hatred (TDS), and muses about its all-consuming nature. 

I believe the strength of TDS is proportional to Trump’s talent as a public persona, both are very great. People who don’t like him or his MAGA program are made frantic because Trump is able to make nearly all the news about his actions. 

Trump is hyperactive on so many fronts - from war to peace, from show biz to economics, from MMA to auto racing, from rebuilding the capital to anchor babies. His omnipresence supercharges the haters’ obsession. 

I can imagine a Trump hater feeling “there is no sanctuary in which I won’t see Trump grinning back at me.” The only way to avoid him is to stop watching or caring about media altogether. 

I guess there are some aspects of culture which he hasn’t penetrated - maybe pedigreed pets or flute playing, possibly pottery or calligraphy. 

Approvingly or otherwise, bemused historians will likely refer to this as the Trump Era. His 'fingerprints' are almost everywhere you look. Hat tip to RealClearPolicy for the link.

Something Trump and I Shared

Stephen Green does a column for PJ Media, and also posts at Instapundit. Here he lays out the rebuttal to the claim Donald John Trump dodged the draft. He cites his source and claims to have checked that the following is accurate.

Trump registered for the draft after his 18th birthday on June 24, 1964 (draft dodgers don't register*). 

He was given an S-2 (college) deferment on June 28, 1964 (perfectly legal, not a draft dodger). 

His S-2 status was renewed on Dec 14, 1965 (legal, not a draft dodger), and he was then classified on Nov. 22, 1966, as 1-A (available for service). 

Dec. 13, 1966, his S-2 was again granted to attend Wharton (legal, not a draft dodger). His final deferral was granted on Jan. 16, 1968. 

After graduating from Wharton, he was reclassified 1-A on July 9, 1968. He went to his Armed Forces Physical (something a draft dodger probably would not do) on Sept. 19, 1968, and was categorized as 1-Y, disqualified for service except in war or national emergency (due to bone spurs in both heels). 

He received a high draft lottery number and was never called up. On Feb. 17, 1972, after the abolishment of the 1-Y classification, he was classified 4-F (not qualified for military service).

I'm a few years older than President Trump, guys a lot younger than him don't know much about the draft. I have met very few individuals who were aware of the 1-Y draft classification; most only knew of 1-A and 4-F. 

I know because I got a 1-Y myself. In my case the disqualifying issue was a blown rotator cuff in my left shoulder. If I lift my left arm over my head it can dislocate, something I've experienced a several times. It is more painful than you can imagine, I'm very careful not to let it happen.

The purpose of the 1-Y was that in the event of World War III, guys like me and "the Donald" could drive trucks, pound typewriters, run warehouses, and do other non-athletic stuff in uniform, freeing up healthy guys to serve in the combat arms.

Fortunately, no total war occurred. We got "too old" to be drafted, and then the draft went away in 1973 as the military became all-volunteer. 

My Selective Service record looks a lot like Trump's, I had college deferments, graduated, and was called for a draft physical. I was told to come back in a year, which I did. I was then given the 1-Y and told to go home and get on with my civilian life. If reclassified as 4-F, I was never told about it.

Good News from Down South

The Wall Street Journal uses the election of conservative Laura Fernandez to be Costa Rica's new president as the news "hook" for a discussion of conservatives winning elections across Latin America. The article is echoed on msn.com, making it available outside the WSJ paywall.

Hondurans late last year elected right-wing candidate Nasry Asfura, whom Trump publicly supported. Chileans in December voted in conservative Jose Antonio Kast. 

Bolivia in October ended two decades of socialist rule with the election of President Rodrigo Paz. And Argentina's libertarian leader, Javier Milei, cemented his hold on power in a crucial in a crucial midterm election in October.

A right-wing candidate is expected to win Peru's presidential election in April, polls show. Conservatives are also vying for power in elections later this year in Brazil and Colombia, which are ruled by left-wing presidents.

Also mentioned favorably is El Salvador's president Nayib Bukele. He's a hard-liner known for jailing thousands of violent criminal gang members, more or less permanently.

Saturday Snark

A Tri Delt looking good at 61.

Excellent wordplay.

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Friday Snark

He's hyperactive.

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

'Twas cider vinegar.

Images courtesy of RealClearPolitics'

Cartoons of the Week.

A 'Coincidence' Questioned

Writing* at the Wall Street Journal, author Louise Perry looks at falling birth rates worldwide, relates them to political orientations, and ends up with more questions than answers. One conclusion she does reach is this.

Twin studies suggest that political attitudes are roughly 40% heritable. Of course, children do sometimes diverge from or react against their parents’ politics. But in general, expect the partisan fertility gap to usher in a U.S. that is more conservative. In fact, the whole of the developed world is on track to become more conservative.

In brief, wherever found, conservatives are having more children than progressives. 

----------

I'm going to suggest a possibly related factor. The sexually conventional have more kids than those whose sexuality is unconventional.

The sexually unconventional have tended to be progressive for absolutely rational reasons. Declining repression of unconventional sexuality throughout the developed world has paralleled declining birth rates. I believe this parallel may not be a coincidence.

_______
*Article is behind a "semi-paywall." You can scroll it on the top half of the screen while your screen's bottom half is filled with a pitch to sell you a WSJ subscription.

Pence Another Gore?

Tim O'Brien at PJ Media writes: "Looks like Mike Pence is gunning to be the next Al Gore." I freely admit I hadn't made the connection. In my defense, I am unlikely to think of either Al Gore or Mike Pence in any context.

The comparison may become one of those things that once seen, cannot be forgotten. Both men are former Vice Presidents, both are nags and stiffs. Both strike a "holier than thou" pose that is hard to stomach.

Current VP Vance is none of those things, though his place in history is yet to be revealed.

For Anglophiles

Amelia image courtesy of Ed Driscoll, posting at Instapundit,

with hat tip to Shepard Fairey.

FAFO in CO

Four of my first cousins, with whom I played as a child in CA, grew up in rural western CO. Three have lived there since childhood, and the fourth retired there. So I keep a weather eye on Colorado.

Today CO resident Stephen Green, posting at Instapundit, links to interesting economic indicators reflecting Colorado’s evolving conditions. Some key insights:

For the first time in 16 years, rents in metro Denver are actually going down. Not “slowing their increase.” Not “rising less quickly.” Going down. Metro-wide rents are down nearly 5% over the last year.

People are still fleeing the high-tax, government-failure states of California, New York and Illinois. Those refugees used to pour into Colorado. No more. They’re finding sanctuary in low-tax, low-regulation states like Florida and Texas instead.

Give our leaders one victory. They’ve stopped the mass migration of Californians to Colorado — albeit by Californicating our laws.

Now rents are falling — not because Colorado suddenly learned how to build housing efficiently — but because people stopped coming. Demand softened.

When rents fall for the first time in 16 years and population growth stalls, it’s not a mystery. It’s the market delivering feedback.

Colorado is learning the California lesson: bad governance can spoil a beautiful place. Friends in Idaho are worried they could suffer the same fate.

Another Tory Defector

A former Tory Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, recently defected from that benighted party to join Reform. Not entirely unexpected, but certainly significant. 

Comments about rats and sinking ships seem redundant at this juncture. Reform’s Nigel Farage bids fair to be the UK’s Donald Trump, an unabashed nationalist and defender of Brit culture.

Taken along with the Amelia movement, there are some hopeful signs of life in Blighty.

Ride or Literally Die

The latest from COTTonLINE’s current favorite foreign policy analyst - George Friedman - is out. In it he uses the current trilateral talks among the US, Ukraine, and Russia now happening in Dubai as a reason to itemize the many problems now facing Russia.

Taken together, he believes these could be sufficient to cause Russia to want to end the war in Ukraine. Sufficient, that is, if Putin can bring himself to recognize the corner into which he’s painted himself. 

My hunch is that Friedman makes too little of the threat of peace to Putin’s personal survival. Putin sought to reestablish Russia as a world power.  Accepting the status quo in Ukraine as “the best he could manage” against a much smaller adversary will be an admission of personal failure. 

Admitting failure is something autocrats seldom survive and Putin’s knows it. Guilty of war crimes and of diminishing Russia’s might, he’s realizing there is no imaginable safe dismount from the tiger’s back.

As Hitler and Mussolini demonstrated, once you lose you die, by your own hand or those of others. So you struggle on to the end.

Tuesday Snark

Image courtesy of Lucianne.com, 1/26/26.