Geopolitical Game of 'Chicken'

Writing for Asia Times, Leon Hadar calls the standoff at the Strait of Hormuz "unwinnable." Both sides have (and are willing to use) the ability to close the straits to shipping, neither is able to genuinely prevent the other from doing so. Ergo, stalemate.

Except, as Hadar notes, Iran cannot tolerate the Strait being closed indefinitely, as doing so means they cannot export significant oil and LNG, with such export being almost their only source of foreign exchange. And our allies pressure the US to get the strait open.

If the US was politically able to continue the blockade semi-indefinitely Iran would eventually overthrow its current leaders as the nation-wide poverty became unsustainable. Our political system doesn't really accommodate such a policy, and Iran knows it. 

Therefore, both sides are trying to outlast the other, and because our timetable is fixed and knowable, whereas Iran's is not, the advantage is theirs, unfortunately.

Glimmers of the Future

A very interesting long article at Tyler Durden's Zero Hedge website, authored by Madge Waggy. It looks at how far androids have come since the early days of vaguely humanoid robots. 

I have not read widely in the relevant literature, but I've had a notion that I've not seen elsewhere. It is that the real market for artificial women exists in China where the results of the one-child policy have created a decided scarcity of young women.

In a true market economy, that need would produce product innovation; China is not entirely a market-driven economy. China's government exhibits outbursts of prudishness which militate against this innovation.

In the US the market demand will be for live-in caregivers for the widowed or single elderly. A talented artificial companion would enable individuals to live at home for years longer. Why shouldn't these resemble an attractive young adult, with designed gender of your choice?

Saturday Snark

Both can hurt you.

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Meme It Like It's Hot.

ICYMI

Three weeks into March, earlier this year, I wrote about the impact destroying Iran's electrical generation stations would have on their civilization, some parts of which approach first world standards.

Without electric power civilization disappears and society reverts to prior norms. Water and sewage don't move, refrigeration ends, heat comes from fire, or sunlight, most homes become little more than artificial caves. Gas stations can't pump fuel, traffic lights don't work, etc. Phones and tablets can't be charged.

Imagine digging a pit privy in your yard, if you have a yard. Carrying water from God-knows-where, cooking over an open fire, and scrounging for light after sunset. Apartment dwellers can't even do this much.

I'll know we've gotten serious about crippling Iran when it is reliably reported we've blacked out the power grid in several large cities. I look forward to before-and-after nighttime satellite photos showing a Tehran gone dark after sundown. 

The veneer of civilization, upon which we all rely, is far thinner than most imagine. Berlin had a brief taste of the 'medicine' this past January.

Friday Meme Fest

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The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

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Cartoons of the Week.

Fauci-style Snark

Babylon Bee image courtesy of Instapundit.

Election Security

President Trump will speak to the nation tonight, and his topic will be election security. It is widely hypothesized he will disclose large amounts of election insecurity that has been documented, and on that basis declare an emergency requiring executive branch action under the “Guarantee” clause of the Constitution (U.S. Const. art. IV, § 4).

If you’d like a conservative law prof’s view of that clause, Instapundit Glenn Reynolds has a Substack column about what may go down. Here are two key quotes:

Supreme Court precedent (starting with Luther v. Borden, 48 U.S. (7 How.) 1 (1849)) has generally treated Guarantee Clause claims as nonjusticiable political questions committed to the political branches (Congress and the President), not the courts.

Trump’s timing is probably calculated to allow the usual frivolous lower court injunctions that seem to be aimed at anything he does to be overturned before the midterms; he might also simply ignore such injunctions, as an obvious judicial overstep in an area that courts have stayed out of since Luther v. Borden (emphasis in original).

As usual, Democrats will go bonkers, predict world ending. Also as usual, they’ll be wrong.

Later ... Welp, Trump didn't invoke the Guarantee clause tonight. Instead he shared a lot of intelligence that countries which consider us an enemy have been hacking our voting records, and maybe messing with voting machines. He again urged passage of the SAVE act to protect our elections, probably in vain.

Graham a Model Senator

The recent death of Sen. Lindsey Graham causes us to ponder that a Senate seat, properly utilized, is the finest job in U.S. politics. The term is longer (6 years), there are no term limits, and many senators serve 3 or more terms. 

Talented senators like Graham showcase the role’s potential. He certainly made the most of it. 

Col. Graham, thank you for your service. Rest in peace.

A Hard Sell

I wonder if this story will finally convince LGBTQ+ folk that Islam isn’t their friend. Two Islamic countries - neither particularly radical - have refused docking to a gay cruise. Earlier stories of throwing gay men to their death off tall buildings apparently weren’t convincing. 

Saturday Snark

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and its Comments section.

Images courtesy of Sarah Hoyt's 

Bring Out Your Memes.