Writing at The National Interest, Dan Negrea argues that we should be planning for an eventual breakup of today's Russia. He sees three issues about which to center plans.
First, how to respond to the demands for recognition from Russian republics seeking self-determination.
Second, how to ensure that Russia’s 6,000 nuclear weapons are not used during the unrest.
Third, how to deter a Chinese land grab in resource-rich Siberia.
About the third, Negrea adds:
The current borders were established only 160 years ago when a weak China was forced to cede to a strong Russia 350,000 square miles of Siberia. (snip) In the border region ... a Russian population of 6 million faces 90 million Chinese.
His description of the problem vis-a-vis China reminds me of a long-ago game of Risk™ where I role-played the Russian (then Soviet) general staff. I looked at "our" lengthy border with China, and mused about their billion or so people, and our thinly populated Siberia.
If China ever decided to march north in search of natural resources, the only way we could stop them was with nukes, and plenty of them. Thus: If the third issue occurs, I expect the second to follow immediately.
