RealClearWorld links to an article at the site 19FortyFive where Daniel Davis argues that Ukraine “does not have a military path to victory” against Russia. He is correct, Ukraine will not defeat Russia on the battlefield, presuming both retain a will to continue the fight.
He is correct, but he is answering the wrong question. The right question is whether both can “retain a will to continue the fight?” You will recollect that both Russia (in its former Soviet guise) and the United States could not “retain the will to fight” in Afghanistan, while the Afghans did. The Soviets went home and so did we, as the British had a century before.
Like the Afghans the Ukrainians have nowhere to go, they are “home.” Eventually the Russians will tire of the fight and go home to Russia. All we have to do is continue to provide enough arms to keep the Ukes fighting, as we did with the Afghans.
The only way Russia wins is to go to total mobilization, and send millions of armed Russians to Ukraine where they occupy the entire country - every little village and big city - and operate all the various levers of power. This is theoretically possible, but unlikely as a reality. They would still face internal dissent like that of the French resistance in WWII, with weapons smuggled in from adjacent NATO countries.
An option earlier conquerors had - kill all the adult men, and sell the women and children into slavery - thankfully is mostly off the table these days. What is happening to Uyghurs in China comes close.
