The Hill reports the results of a Granite State Poll looking at the percentage of New Hampshire voters who plan to cast a vote for each Republican who seeks the 2024 presidential nomination. I've summarized the results in tabular form.
37% Trump
23% DeSantis
8% Scott
6% Christie
6% Burgum
5% Ramaswamy
5% Haley
1% Pence
1% Hurd
Trump's lead in NH is much less than reported elsewhere. A clear majority (55%) of New Hampshire Republican voters polled prefer someone other than Trump. As I've noted before, a key unknown is how many of those preferring a non-Trump candidate have Trump as their second choice?
Are these findings a statistical outlier? It's hard to tell at this point. By the time NH votes in early 2024 I fully expect several of these wannabes to have dropped out.
One of the analysts I read claimed that NH has a pretty good record of picking a candidate who then wins the general election. A better record than Iowa, for instance.
You can be sure there are people in the other campaigns hoping Trump is convicted of something in one of the 3-4 indictments he faces. I doubt he would drop out but it would then be more uphill for him.
