Steven Malanga, senior editor at City Journal, writes about big cities' declining populations of school age children and their consequent declines in public school enrollment. For example:
Los Angeles’s district reached its enrollment peak more than 20 years ago, at 737,000 students, and has been on a steady downturn since then. It lost 57,000 students during Covid, and total enrollment is now down 58 percent since the peak. A recent study estimated that the district could lose another 125,000 students by 2030. (emphasis added)
Several factors are involved. All schools suffer because of declining birth rates. In addition, schools in states losing population are hit harder. And finally, big city schools are impacted by parents moving to less blighted suburban and exurban neighborhoods.
The example cited above - Los Angeles - is one of several in CA, IL, and the Northeast which hit the 'trifecta' of all three negative impacts. Meanwhile state funds to education are normally based on enrollment, so these districts suffer shrinking resources. Look for local real estate taxes to go up, which will make urban living even more unattractive.
