Arguments For and Against

The 2012 presidential election will be a referendum on the performance of President Obama. Assuming the Republicans nominate a candidate viewed by the voters as serious and qualified, voters will vote for the president if they've liked his performance over the last four years, or for the Republican if they haven't liked Obama's performance.

Many pundits have suggested the president is likely to be reelected, based on a variety of arguments. Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, has done a very nice two part article which looks at their arguments in considerable detail. You can find the two parts here and here. Trende concludes:

Right now the best you can say about Barack Obama's re-election chances is that they hover roughly around 50-50, and are largely dependent on forces outside of his control.

Odds of 50-50 aren't bad but the "outside of his control" part must give the White House heartburn.