Monday, April 4, 2011

Barone on Demographics 2.0

The conventional wisdom is that, as the U.S. population becomes less white and more Hispanic and Asian, the GOP is disadvantaged. Writing for RealClearPolitics, Michael Barone looks at the numbers and says this "wisdom" may be exaggerated.

He begins by observing that substantial minorities of both Hispanics and Asians already vote Republican. Going a step further, he demonstrates that both terms are overly generic. Immigrants from India vote differently than those from the Philippines, though both are classed as Asian. Hispanics from Cuba vote differently than those from Mexico.

The history of two party politics in the United States is such that their so-called "big tents" encompass highly diverse groups. FDR's Democrats, for example, included both northern African-Americans and southern segregationist whites. The two party system has proven remarkably stable, and will likely remain so.