Sunday, March 31, 2013

Identity Group Politics

John Hinderaker of Power Line weighs in with an explanation of the apparent dichotomy between the supposed "two Republican parties." In short, he concludes there aren't two different parties.

Hinderaker believes that in 2008 and 2012 the Republicans were the victims of 3-4 minority groups which - excited at having a non-white person as President - turned out in unprecedented numbers. If Dems conclude this is the case, they are likely to continue to nominate non-white candidates for President; Hillary wouldn't  generate the same turnout.

Hinderaker also infers that Obama had essentially zero coattails. This is why there are record numbers of GOP governors, a GOP-controlled House, and very many state legislatures GOP-controlled.

The 2014 midterm election results will give us insight into whether or not Hinderaker is correct. If 2014 results are like 2010 results, Hinderaker is probably correct. If 2014 results resemble the 2012 results, other things are at work. We'll know in 20 months.