Friday, April 7, 2017

"Long Run" Misleading

Supposedly wizard prognosticator Nate Silver, writing at his FiveThirtyEight site, heads his reaction to the Gorsuch nomination Senate approval process thusly:
Nuking the Filibuster May Hurt Republicans in The Long Run
Of course Silver "may" be correct, he sometimes is. I'd remind him of John Maynard Keynes famous dictum to his fellow economists:
Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. 
Meanwhile, in the short-to-medium run, the GOP is ahead of the game, particularly if The Donald can win a second term and hold the Senate for the whole 8 years - admittedly large "ifs."

N.B., Silver predicted an easy Clinton win in 2016. Oops.