The Window Is Closing

A very interesting geopolitical analysis at RealClearWorld. It looks at current goings-on in China, compares them to Russia’s current quagmire in Ukraine, and finds interesting parallels. China’s shrinking population is clearly an issue. Key thoughts on China.

China's Central Military Commission normally seats seven men. It currently seats two.

More than a hundred senior PLA officers have been removed or have simply stopped appearing in public since 2022.

Fewer than eight million children were born there in 2025, the lowest figure since the People's Republic began keeping records in 1949, and the fourth consecutive year of outright population decline. The working-age population peaked around 2011 and has shrunk every year since.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces roughly ninety percent of the world's leading-edge chips, the three-nanometer and smaller processors inside every advanced weapons system, every AI data center, and every flagship phone on the planet.

Russia moved through its closing window and lost the thing it was trying to protect. China is standing at the same window with a shrinking population, a client instead of a partner in Moscow, an energy buffer it has now spent twice, a semiconductor trap that punishes the very move it contemplates, and a high command that its own leader has spent four years hollowing out.

Translation: Don’t envy Xi as he looks at what happened to Russia in Ukraine and contemplates what could happen to China in Taiwan. He commands a shrinking resource.  

In Defense of Thanksgiving

Governor candidate Francesca Hong has a problem with Thanksgiving, she seems to see it celebrating colonialism - one of the current era’s big no-nos. Leaving aside her history of mental illness, what’s missing here is a knowledge of history.

Thanksgiving is a harvest festival. Humans have been celebrating the harvest ever since we made the transition from hunter-gatherers to agriculturalists, thousands of years ago. 

The land rewards our hard work in the fields with enough food to last through the winter and spring, an event certainly worth celebrating. The crops are in and stored, now it is time to brace ourselves for the cold and dark. 

If you think about it, Thanksgiving celebrates the autumnal equinox, Christmas the winter solstice, and Easter the spring equinox. Don’t be surprised if many non-Christian nations have similar patterns of celebration, however they are locally labeled.

Good News

A week ago I wrote about Jason Arday, a DEI faculty hire at Cambridge U. who is guilty of plagiarism and multiple examples of claiming glorious deeds he's never done. Today comes the good news that he has resigned from Cambridge, effective immediately. 

It is nice when con artists are sent packing with tail between legs. Cambridge meanwhile looks foolish and credulous. 

The U.K. can't seem to catch a break these days. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

Racial Crossroads

A very interesting, long article with this title about how supposedly "temporary" affirmative action (reverse discrimination) has become mostly permanent and turned into "racial communism." Warning: the article is not upbeat, not optimistic.

It ends up arguing for dropping all mention of race from our legal structure, and leaning hard instead on government treating everyone equally, and dropping the emphasis on "equity" or equal outcomes.

I found myself skimming parts which recapped steps in the evolution of racial relations with which I was already more familiar than I'd like to be. You may wish to do the same.

The parallels drawn between our experiences and those of citizens of the Soviet Union are very interesting, and possibly controversial. It suggests we may be suffering from some of the same decline for some of the same reasons, parallels of which we’ve not become aware as we go about our daily routines.

Old Movie Review: MASH

During a summer of TV reruns with all of the good streaming series already binged, the DrsC have been rewatching some old films - some we’ve seen before, others we missed when new. A couple of nights ago we rewatched MASH, the film, not the TV series.

Fun fact: Gary Burghoff (aka Radar O’Reilly) was the only cast member carryover to TV. Released in 1970, MASH in many ways broke new ground with off color references and behavior, insubordination, silliness as a way to tolerate the intolerable, and plot non-linearity. 

We saw this when we were courting and my dear lady didn’t like it much then. Rewatching it 55+ years later she enjoyed it. I liked it both times.

Fun fact: Per Wikipedia, Robert Altman, who directed MASH, “despised the TV series.” It is certainly true the TV series cleaned up a lot of the off-color stuff. On TV the commanding officer didn’t cohabit with a nurse, as the film C.O. does.

Some old films, as we say, “hold up” many years later, others are so much “of their era” that they are no longer fun to watch. MASH still works as comedy and entertainment. It is crazy fun, and its hospital sexual hijinks are echoed in today’s Grey’s Anatomy.

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Later:  Did you know MASH was not the first film about Mobile Army Surgical Hospitals? In 1953 there was a B&W MGM film called Battle Circus starring Humphrey Bogart and June Allyson. It was of a MASH unit in Korea, with Bogart as a surgeon and Allison as a nurse who falls for him. 

Not a bad film, particularly interesting how they could pitch and strike the tents when the unit has to move to a new location. It is much less racy than the 1970 version, but has more shooting and the same choppers and muddy tents.

Perverse Incentives

Francis Menton posts as the Manhattan Contrarian and is often worth reading. Today he writes about two large pseudoscience scams that have been perpetrated upon us in recent years: the Covid overreaction spearheaded by Fauci, and the climate scare hoax. Menton concludes:

Is there any reason to believe that the still ongoing climate scare narrative is any more trustworthy than the Covid-scare narrative has proven to have been? Both have been backed by a vast research apparatus, almost entirely government funded, which looks to lose most of its funding and associated careers and promotions and prestige if there really is no underlying existential crisis.

The issue in both cases is perverse incentives, which reward scientists for exaggerating the dangers of the issue they are ideally situated to confront. Instead of “trust the science” the reward structure suggests we should “distrust the science,” or at least those scientists whose iron rice bowl the research is.

Skepticism is in fact both healthy and appropriate - as Ronald Reagan famously said: "Trust, but verify." Hat tip to RealClearScience for the link.

Remembering

My rhetorical question for our times, reflecting on the abrupt rise of the so-called Democratic Socialists.

Where are this generation’s Sen. Joseph McCarthy and HUAC? We need them.

IYKYK, and IYK of course you’re not young. 

Memeingful

Images courtesy of Sarah Hoyt's

A Giant Leap for Memes.

Saturday Snark

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Friday Meme Fest

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Images courtesy of RealClearPolitics'

Cartoons of the Week.

Less Than Cordial

Recently, Russia's Vladimir Putin met with Kazakhstan President Tokayev who was anything but diplomatic about Putin's war in Ukraine. Here is how that went.

“I will not hide that I am receiving many signals—which I have already informed you about by phone—from Europe and the United States regarding the current state of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia,” Tokayev told Putin as a slew of Kremlin-controlled TV outlets filmed the confrontation.

He went on to call BS on the Kremlin’s narrative of the war, saying, “The nature of this conflict is not entirely clear” and seems utterly pointless.

“This all needs to stop,” Tokayev said, urging Putin to “freeze” the war and return to negotiations. He twisted the knife by adding that despite “proposals and appeals,” Kazakhstan “categorically refuses” to act as a mediator in helping to end the war, since “Russia is a great country” and can “manage on its own.”

'Tsar' Vlad isn't accustomed to being addressed in this condescending fashion. Be sure his rage was towering, Tokayev is a brave man.

Kazakhstan resembles Ukraine - a former Russian colony now independent. Tokayev empathizes with Zelensky and fears similar military 'attention' from the former colonial master. Putin has made clear his obsession - currently stymied - to put the empire back together.

CA Fuel Shortage

Here is another story to file under the heading "decline and fall of the once-great State of California." By pursuing "green" policies, CA is running out of petroleum-based fuel.

Driven by adversarial state policies and aggressive litigation from activist groups, the state’s domestic refining capacity has already been crippled, and has led to the most expensive transportation fuels in the nation for its California residents.

California is the 4th largest economy in the world and an ENERGY ISLAND that is separated from the other 49 States by the Sierra Mountains. There are no pipelines over those mountains.

California demands 58 million gallons of transportation fuel DAILY:

• 11 million gallons/day for Jet fuel for the States’ military and international airports.
• 10 million gallons/day for Diesel for the States’ trucking and construction industries.
• 37 million gallons/day for Gasoline for the States’ more than 36 million vehicles.

The Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland are NOT designed to import those humongous volumes of transportation fuels. (emphases in original)

With over 11% of the US population, CA may not be "the 4th largest economy in the world" much longer, if it runs out of fuel. Seemingly, no one in Sacramento cares.

Russia: Victory or Extinction

RealClearDefense links to an essay looking at the strategic thinking of the upper echelons of Russian policy makers. The news isn't good. 

The viewpoint is that of Andrei Bezrukov, a former deep cover mole who spied in the US, was arrested by the FBI, and was sent home to Russia in a prisoner exchange. He now teaches at MGIMO (Russia's Foreign Affairs university) and writes opinion from inside the latter-day nomenklatura. Some key insights.

The world has entered “a period of another total redivision of the world” — передел мира — which will be defined not by prosperity, but by survival.

The world is undergoing a power transition into a multipolar world, where the Western countries do not hold a central position.

The wars in Ukraine and Iran are presented as the opening stage of a wider struggle over the redivision of the world. Bezrukov expects more conflicts to emerge.

Bezrukov frames the war as “a struggle to eliminate an existential threat from the West”. It requires, he argues, the exertion of all Russia’s human and material resources, because “only a clear victory will satisfy Russia.”

He is ruling out any outcome that resembles a draw or can be interpreted as a Russian defeat. That distinction leaves little room for compromise.

The value of Bezrukov’s essay is that it makes explicit a worldview in which there is little opportunity for a negotiated ceasefire.

Translation: Do not expect fruitful negotiations leading to an end of the Ukraine conflict anytime soon.  

Soft Bigotry at Cambridge U.

Several sources including Yahoo have run stories on Cambridge University's diversity icon Jason Arday - the youngest black professor ever appointed there. He is widely accused of plagiarism, very nearly academia's most mortal sin. 

Many are defending him, alleging racism. Many others are sure he violated academic ethics in 'borrowing' without citation many whole exact sentences and more of others' work. He has also made claims about his endurance running which have subsequently been withdrawn or scrubbed.

I am reminded of what the second President Bush called "the soft bigotry of low expectations;" these seem to have been operational in Arday's career progress. I fear those vetting Arday for Cambridge were overly generous in order to make the university look diverse, and of course as a result it now looks lame.

I am also reminded of Claudine Gay, former president of Harvard, who had similar difficulties for similar reasons. An Inside Higher Education article lists several college presidents who've lost their jobs for plagiarism of one sort or another.

I hope as a COTTonLINE reader you've noticed I try hard to provide citations for my sources, and mostly succeed.

Starship Soft Landing Pix

Posting at Instapundit, Stephen Green has great pix of Starship's soft landing in the Indian Ocean. The video is spectacular. It landed tail first and floats like a cork.

Did you have any idea that seawater can burn with nice orange flames if subjected to an object that is sufficiently hot? I sure as heck didn't. 

It flames like anything around Starship's nose which would be hottest. Do you suppose sufficient heat splits the O from the H2 and then the two ignite to recombine?

This is worth seeing, I promise.

Subsidized Groceries

Law Prof Jonathan Turley, describing NYC Mayor Mamdani’s promised city-run discount grocery stores.

Rather than deliver discount groceries, Mamdani is selling New Yorkers a bill of goods that will cost them millions.

It is not a description of a competitive grocery but a public charity. It is a quasi-food bank where taxpayers subsidize the cost.

In reality, Mamdani will be selling apples at a far greater cost than any competitor, but those true costs will be buried in the city budget and paid for by the taxpayers

Basically Mamdani is providing New Yorkers the equivalent of food stamps for which they need not apply nor qualify. NYC’s taxpayers will foot the bill for same. 

Third world governments have gone down this “subsidized food basics” path. The results are never good, but once offered nearly impossible to retract as riots ensue.

When the Soviets subsidized bread, farmers would buy loaves to feed their chickens. Bread was cheaper than unsubsidized chickenfeed.

Breaking … Fauci Takes the Fifth

Called to testify this morning before Sen. Rand Paul’s Senate committee, former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci “delivered a rant against Paul and then responded to all questions by pleading the Fifth Amendment," according to Power Line.

PL’s John Hinderaker concludes.

Most likely, what Fauci fears is not prosecution but embarrassment. The documents that have recently come out show pretty decisively that Fauci was a fraud who repeatedly misled the American people. I infer from his legal defense that he does not have good answers to the questions the senators would have posed.

Once again, an unelected FedGov bureau head has proven himself to be self-serving pond scum.

The “Morbidity Gap”

RealClearScience links to an interesting research report on lifespan and healthspan, the latter being how long we live without dealing with major health issues. The difference between the two “spans” being how long we live with major health issues before dying, this is called the “morbidity gap” and it is rising.

Global life expectancy rose from 64.6 years in 1990 to 73.8 in 2023, the study found. But healthy life expectancy failed to keep pace, with adults now spending around one in seven years in poor health.

This had me worried, until I read the following. 

Most populations now spend a decade or more living in poor health. For individuals and families, that means more years are spent managing chronic conditions like back pain, hearing loss, neurological disorders and diabetes.

Lower back pain is no joke, the other DrC has it and suffers plenty. On the other hand, I have worn hearing aids for a decade or more. And I have neuropathy in lower limbs, but cope with both issues just fine and do not consider myself in particularly “poor health.” 

I no longer take long walks and tire somewhat easily, but I am essentially happy and enjoy life. Expend no sympathy on me.

A Historic Realignment

What is happening to the Democratic Party now with an attempted takeover by the Democratic Socialists of America, you might ask? Isn't it analogous to the MAGA takeover of the Republican Party that began in 2016? Let me try to convince you that is so, beginning with a quick history review.

When Donald Trump won the nomination in 2016, he was still somewhat in the thrall of the Bush-era Republicans. Choosing Mike Pence as VP was an indication of that. Then along came Covid which helped the Bushies keep Trump from pursuing his agenda. 

Four years later the electorate in their wisdom gave the presidency to a historically not-radical Joe Biden and Trump got some years to meditate on what he could have done better. Biden was far past his prime so his handlers pursued a radical agenda which the voting public didn't love.

In 2024 Trump got the presidency back and, having learned from his mistakes, dove headlong into his MAGA agenda. That included electing his own people, sealing the border, and booting the Bush-Cheney-Romney coterie out the door. 

Today the Republican Party is almost entirely MAGA, most former "country club" Republicans are history, and blue collar America has switched parties. MAGA loves Don who is their idea of how a rich guy should act.

Finding their formerly "big" tent somewhat underpopulated, Democrats began looking around for groups that felt underrepresented. What they discovered was overcredentialed, underemployed college grads who are in debt up to their eyebrows, can't find suitable career employment, or afford to buy homes. 

This group wants change and capitalism represents the status quo they dislike. That socialism has never worked isn't an argument they'll buy, as what we have now isn't working for them.

The disaffected had been drawn to Bernie Sanders in past elections and they now coalesce around the Democratic Socialists. DSA bids fair to take over the Ds the way MAGA took over the Rs. Today's old line Ds sound as put-out as old line Rs did when MAGA shunted them aside. 

What is happening over the past decade or so is a major realignment of various interest groups in the US of A. We still have two big tent political parties but the demographics of each tent are substantially different than they were 20 years ago.

A personal note: I was mostly okay with the former Republican Party but disagreed with some of its policies - it liked illegal immigration and globalism. I experienced the MAGA movement as getting rid of GOP policies with which I'd disagreed. The transition, for me, has been smooth. 

Tuesday Smirk

Image courtesy of today's Politico.