CA Does the Right Things … for a Change

Longtime readers know I’ve devoted untold column inches to documenting the sins and sorrows of my native state, California. When its voters show some evidence of sanity, fairness moves me to note that as well.

In the election just concluded the state as a whole passed Proposition 36, which undoes many of the sins of Prop. 47, backed by Harris. Prop. 47 decriminalized some offenses and reduced others from felony to misdemeanor. Prop. 36 makes penalties more harsh, particularly retail theft or shoplifting.

In addition, the voters of Los Angeles refused to reelect soft-on-crime DA George Gascón and elected in his place a law and order man. Taken together, these two acts suggest the voters remaining in CA are beginning to understand coddling criminals begets more crime … an obvious truth.

With the reminder that one robin does not suggest spring has arrived, and one wise act does not signal a renaissance of sanity in CA, we should applaud any moves in the sensible direction. I hope you liked the wordplay in my title.

Winning BIG

Donald Trump won his second term. He didn’t just win it, he won BIG or as he would say, yuuuuge - far and away more Electoral College votes than the 270 he needed. 

Just how many more remains to be seen as three states have yet to report their winner. Over 300 for certain. He has so far swept all the “battleground” states which have reported, and at this point is ahead in most of the remainder.

Right now the MAGA Republican Party is as much Trump’s as the 1930s Democratic Party was FDR’s. You can’t imagine anyone else running it, although inevitably someone else will eventually do so. J.D. Vance is very talented, perhaps he will.

Now the Dims have to figure out what set of fixes will enable them to be competitive again. When you lose the presidency and the Senate in a single election, introspection is definitely in order. 

From our point of view on the right, a move toward the center seems the logical, if painful choice. Plus a repudiation of some sort of the Squad and its hangers-on like Sens. Warren and Sanders. 

I actually voted for Bill Clinton when he first ran for president, hoping to encourage the Dims to move toward the center formerly occupied by the likes of Sens. Sam Nunn and Scoop Jackson. Those were serious people who knew how to govern.

Fixing the Dims is someone else’s problem, I propose to enjoy being on the winning side for a change. Four more years of “The Donald” lie ahead, if he can close the border, deport criminal aliens, eradicate DEI, and roll back transgenderism, I’ll be happy. I’d love it if he could shrink the FedGov by a third, but that may be a bridge too far.

More Looking Good

As I write this Donald Trump has just been declared the winner in Pennsylvania. This gives him 267 electoral votes, where he needs 270 minimum. Several states remain to report, still counting their votes. 

Bret Baier concludes there is essentially no feasible way for Harris to win all those still outstanding. It is likely his Electoral College total votes will be substantially greater than 270. 

Thus Donald John Trump will be the 47th president, baring the black swan of all times. Hip, Hip, Hooray! As someone on Fox News just said, we’ve seen our Republic “repairing” itself, mending the misstep that was the Biden presidency.

Democrats need to do some serious soul-searching about how and why they screwed up so bad, losing to a guy many thought a boor and a roue’. I’ll have thoughts about what this means tomorrow, after I’ve slept on it.

Later … They just called Wisconsin for Trump, taking him to 277, making his win official. At this point only MI, AZ, NV, and AK remain to be called.

An analyst on MSNBC said “Trump did better among every demographic except college educated women.” I wonder if less partisan outlets will agree? If true, that is a heck of an endorsement.

Instead of being gracious and calling Trump to congratulate him, Harris sent her campaign staff home and went to bed. This is a “no class” move if ever I saw one. The news media are unimpressed and now feel free to say as much.

Last Poll of the Cycle … Looking Good

The poll with the best track record in 2020 was AtlasIntel and their poll taken over the last two days has just dropped. Are they accurate this time? Who knows? Their accuracy last time at least gets them a serious look.

They have Trump ahead 49.2 to 48.1, with the balance going to third party candidates. They predict Trump will take all of the so-called swing states or battleground states with the exception of Minnesota. They predict the Electoral College will go 312 for Trump vs. 226 for Harris.

Their prediction shouldn’t keep anyone from voting, but I like their scenario. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings if it proved accurate. 

—————

It is already Nov. 5 - Election Day - here on this side of the International Date Line but that means little as it is still Nov. 4 where the election is yet to happen. We’ll start getting results about 3 p.m. local Samoan time tomorrow after the polls close on the East Coast. I know what I’ll be doing tomorrow p.m.

It is fingers-crossed time, boys and girls, time to think positive thoughts.

Weird Gerontological Science

UPI reports results of a study in the U.K. which followed 8400 older people for 10 years. It found the following:

Folks with more money and better education are at less risk for developing dementia as they grow older, a new study shows.

They found that aging folks with a college education are 43% less likely to have mild cognitive impairment, results showed.

Further, being in the wealthiest third of the population is linked with a 26% lower risk of advancing from mild cognitive impairment into full-blown dementia, researcher said.

Results also showed that advantaged people are more likely to recover from mild cognitive impairment and regain their wits.

The findings are correlational, that is, they do not prove causality. I’d argue that starting out with a better brain and not having to worry about money both help in keeping dementia away from one’s door. 

But the cause could actually be that the more educated and affluent are more likely to be married and that helps with mental health too. As I’ve written too many times in an academic career, “More research on this topic is needed.”

Squirrel Power

For God’s sake, painter Bob Ross had pet squirrels, sometimes in his shirt pocket, while he painted happy little trees. Nobody bothered Bob.

On Tuesday, let’s get vengeance for the late squirrel Peanut and his raccoon pal. Both murdered by faceless NY bureaucrats. Vote for less government interference in our daily lives. Vote Trump/Vance.

Travel Blogging VIII

Sometime in the next 24 hours we cross both the equator and the international date line. We will go from Saturday directly to Monday without ever experiencing Sunday. That is the date line.

We will also go from mid-autumn to mid-spring in the southern hemisphere. That is the equator. Of course here near the equator the seasons don’t mean a lot, but by the time we get to Sydney we’ll notice the difference.

For the last day or so the ocean has been almost dead calm, which makes cruising more pleasant. The air is warm and humid, welcome to the tropics. In the days of sailing ships they’d call what we’re steaming through “the doldrums” and they’d be becalmed as there is no wind.

Experienced mariners in sailing ship days would try to plot routes that avoided the region of little wind. We have no such problem, we burn fuel and keep on truckin’.

The ship we’re on - the Westerdam - is 20 years old, christened in 2004. More modern ships have several specialty restaurants while this one has only two, and one of those tucked in a corner of the Lido deck buffet restaurant. The ship is well maintained, doesn’t look shabby, but does lack some of the modern features. I wonder if she’ll be stationed in Australia/New Zealand for the next several years?

Self-Indulgent

Power Line’s John Hinderaker catches Trump making a “chicken hawk” attack on Liz Cheney and responds thus.

Why on God’s green Earth was Trump talking about Liz Cheney? He should be laser-focused on the border and the cost of living, not petulantly pursuing his personal grudges. This kind of blunder threatens to undo much of the good will he gained with the masterful McDonalds and garbage truck episodes.

This criticism of Trump led me to an insight. Trump is talented for sure, but he is also self-indulgent in his life and in feuds with others. Not for him the steely discipline of sticking to the campaign message regardless, which makes more self-controlled politicians tiresome to listen to. 

He is interesting and entertaining because he follows his whims where they take him in public speaking. Hearing him, you know you’re hearing the real Donald Trump; not some rehearsed ‘improved’ version of him.

Not Far East of Suez….

I just read a RealClearWorld critique of our policy vis-a-vis the Houthi rebels who are attacking Red Sea shipping. It notes that the additional costs associated with their attacks are much less than the cost of our military response. The author makes a valid point, that the U.S. should let them do what they will and ignore it.

I have another take on this, the Houthi acts cost us little. By dramatically cutting traffic through the Suez Canal they cost the Egyptian government plenty, and the nations of the EU quite a bit.

Our interest in Houthi acts is minor, Egypt’s interest when they cut Egyptian income from canal traffic is major. At the end of the day, the Suez Canal isn’t worth much if using it subjects ships to attack.  Egypt will find dealing with them politically difficult, but that is an Egyptian problem.

Why shouldn’t Egypt and the EU deal with the Houthis? By negotiation if possible, or militarily if need be. The world tends to ignore one group of Arabs fighting another group of Arabs. I envision an Egyptian attack on Yemen funded by the EU.

Hat tip to Rudyard Kipling for the inspiration for this title.

Travel Blogging VII

At sea, south of Hawaii:  We’ve left Kona behind and will be sailing for the next six days until we reach  the nation of Samoa, not to be confused with its neighbor American Samoa which we’ve visited. We’ve not been to Samoa so we add another country to our life list.

You know birdwatchers keep a “life list” of the birds they’ve seen, plus where and when? The DrsC have no such formal list but we joke about the number of countries we’ve visited. The other DrC maintains it is currently 140, I’m certain it’s over 100. 

The main places we’ve not visited are in Central Asia, a cluster mostly of former SSRs with -stan in their name. Those and sub Saharan Africa are places we’ve not been and are likely to never reach. Anyway, visiting the nation of Samoa will be +1 to our phantom life list.

In any event, we are abroad on the bosom of the briny and will be for most of a week. This group of experienced travelers won’t have trouble entertaining ourselves. We will read or listen to books, watch films, attend lectures and musical performances, eat too much, lie by the pool, go to the spa and trade travel yarns with other much traveled folk. The time will pass. 

We are now four time zones west of the Pacific coastline. It suggests we have sailed west approximately the distance from New York to California which encompasses four time zones. 

I’ve no idea how many more we’ll cross but everyone of them is more jet lag we have to overcome after flying home. I’m guessing a week of feeling hung over - that’s how I experience jet lag, like a medium hangover, basically the blahs.

Marriage Is a Republican Thing

The Institute for Family Studies is clearly in favor of marriage as an institution. A fair amount of data suggests they are correct in doing so. They’ve published a compendium of research findings. I’d share a few with you.

Republicans continue to be markedly more likely than Democrats to be married—and this is true for several subgroups in the population.

Republicans continue to enjoy significantly happier marriages and somewhat more stable families with children than Democrats.

At the same time, compared to Democrats, Republicans are slightly more likely to have ever been divorced, and, if ever divorced, are markedly more likely to be remarried.

Most progressives today do not think that “children are better off if they have two married parents,” even though the science points clearly in the other direction.

Democratic support for the classic fidelity norm—that having sex with someone besides your spouse is “always wrong”—has fallen about 30 percentage points, especially among college-educated Democrats, even as Republican support for the norm remains high.

There is much more at the article which I found interesting, perhaps you will as well. Full disclosure: the DrsC have been married for over 50 years. Hat tip to RealClearPolicy for the link.

About Nevada

Nevada is largely desert of one sort or another, a place that must be crossed to reach the coast if headed west, or to reach the more fertile parts of the country if headed east.  So a wonderful place to make a home wouldn’t be your first thought.

Nevertheless it has managed to develop two sizable cities with suburbs - Las Vegas and Reno. What has it had to offer to draw people and capital here? Several things, beginning with no state income tax.

If any state can be labeled “libertarian” Nevada would have to top the list. For many decades the ethos in  Nevada has been, “whatever adults want to do alone or with other consenting adults is their business.” 

I grew up in CA knowing NV was a place of quickie divorces, bars that stayed open 24 hours a day if there was patronage, gambling halls, sex for sale, and high speed limits. I still remember the first time I saw a commercial building in NV labeled “The Shamrock Brothel,” a degree of openness I hadn’t believed existed.

People came from all over the country to do in NV what they chose without some government nosey parker telling them “no.” They still do, hence the current motto “What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.” It might be more accurate if altered to read “Money brought to Vegas, stays in Vegas.” 

Within five miles of my winter place there is a large factory growing, processing, and packaging marijuana. Yes, there are on-site sales though I’ve abstained. 

In recent years firms have taken advantage of the reasonable prices asked for sun-blasted desert land to build gigantic tilt-up warehouses from which hundreds of semi trucks haul merchandise of all sorts to retail establishments west of the Rockies. Nevada obligingly refrains from taxing merchandise in transit, which is a big incentive. There are a couple of these distribution centers just down the road a mile or less from the dope plant.

CA Expats in NV

 Politico Magazine has an article about Californian expats who could “flip” Nevada.

Since 2020 alone, over 150,000 Californians have moved to Nevada — California expats today make up over 20 percent of Nevada’s population. County to county migration flows from the last census show that of the top 16 counties supplying new residents to Reno’s Washoe County, 11 of them are in California.

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in the state (NV) has shrunk from 111,000 in 2020 to 71,000 in 2023, and the number of nonpartisan voters has exploded. In a state that was decided by less than 34,000 votes in 2020, a bloc of highly motivated, California-hating ex-Californians with an axe to grind could play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome this year.

As long-time readers may be aware, the DrsC moved their winter residence from CA to NV about 3 years ago. A bunch of my neighbors in a new 55+ development moved there from CA . Unlike the DrsC, many of them are year-round residents who will vote in NV and I’d guess a lot of those will vote for Trump. 

The article quotes a guy who’s saving $200K a year in CA state income tax as NV has no such tax. Our household isn’t saving that much but, by living in WY which also doesn’t tax income, we save enough every year for a nice trip to Europe or a nice cruise. 

Most of us who fled CA found its state governance repulsive. One would hope most of those are smart enough to avoid voting for a second helping of the nasty mess they chose to leave behind. 

P. R. Genius

The mainstream media don’t want Trump to win, and don’t want to provide him free media coverage, unless it is negative. I believe we can agree to take this assessment as a given.

Trump and his handlers are absolute wizards at dreaming up what one pundit called “cosplay stunts” that are so eye-catching the mainstream media virtually have to cover them. I have in mind both the McDonalds visit with him in an apron passing food out the drive-in window, and his more recent drive of a new, shiny garbage truck, wearing an orange vest. 

This is P.R. genius at work. And unlike Michael Dukakis in the tank or Tim Walz with the shotgun, Trump has the chutspah to pull it off and make it work for him. His time in TV taught him what works and what doesn’t. 

One of my favorite Donald Trump stories is of him decades ago sitting in the green room after a TV interview watching the replay with the sound off, studying what worked for him and what didn’t.  In some ways he’s been studying for this role most of his life.

Travel Blogging VI

In the previous post I used the terms “Polynesia” and “Melanesia,” because I love geography. It occurs to me you may not be into Pacific geographic terminology so I’ll take a stab at definitions. 

Not counting the big archipelagos (Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia) hugging the Asian landmass, the Pacific islands are roughly grouped into three categories: Polynesia, Melanesia, and Micronesia. Micronesia is the small islands north of the equator and west of Midway Island. These include the Marianas plus Guam, the Marshalls, Palau, and FSM.

Polynesia includes French Polynesia (Tahiti, etc.), the Cook Islands, Easter Island, Samoa, Tonga, New Zealand and the Hawaiian Islands. Melanesia includes New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, and New Caledonia.

In the opinion of the DrsC, Rarotonga in the Cook Islands may be the nicest of the bunch. Polynesian charm with a bit of New Zealand order. In French Polynesia, I prefer Moorea and Tahaa; Tahiti and Bora Bora are overdeveloped. On Tahaa buy the vanilla liqueur … as smooth as silk.

From the Kona Coast of the Big Island, happy Halloween.

Name Callers

Hello there fellow ‘garbage’ people, fellow ‘Nazis,’ fellow Trump supporters. A large group of the neurotic and psychotic (plus their enablers) have been calling us these names lately. 

In a reasonable society many of these name-callers would be inpatients in mental hospitals, under the stern-but-therapeutic care of Nurse Ratchet and her order-enforcing clones. We don’t live in a reasonable society.

You have a week remaining in which you can cast a vote for a return to reasonableness, or you can endorse the anything-peculiar-goes status quo. If enough of us vote for the reasonable, maybe we can increase its presence in our society.

I write this alongside the Aloha Tower in Honolulu harbor. It is just after 9 a.m. local time, the sun is shining and the humid air feels silky. Tough duty, but someone has to do it, why not me? By the time we know the election result our ship will be somewhere in either Polynesia or Melanesia, probably the latter.

No Personal Stake

Charles Lipson writes for RealClearPolitics, today about the serious differences between our two major parties.

Cleavages are prominent in issues freighted with social and cultural meaning. That’s certainly true for disputes surrounding abortion and transgender rights. Both issues have practical consequences, but the disputes go further. They are fights over cultural symbols that matter to many people who have no direct, personal stake in reproductive rights or gender changes.

”No personal stake” but vitally important nevertheless, isn’t that a strange state of affairs? 

A ‘Dog’ That Didn’t Bark

Piers Morgan in the New York Post, writing about the Trump rally at Madison Square Garden which he attended.

A Secret Service agent told me that just 150 protesters turned up to express their dismay at Trump holding a rally in the very heart of New York City, when they’d been expecting thousands.

In 2016, vast armies of foaming-at-the-mouth liberals took to the same streets to howl their rage about him.

If they really believed he’s the new Hitler, they’d have probably found the strength to get off their lazy backsides and come and protest.

Their absence said it all.

Absolutely…. 

Travel Blogging V

The other DrC has a great photo taken looking aft from our balcony, we’re located forward on the starboard side. The line of life boats and tenders begins just aft of our room, as the photo shows. 

As is typical, the dining rooms are located low and aft so it is a long walk to supper or to lunch. We get exercise that way, it’s more walking than I normally do ashore. 

The fifth day at sea and we’ve finally gotten far enough south to get warm weather. At lunch by the pool today it was positively sultry, and the overhead that can roof over the pool deck has been retracted so fresh air is circulating. 

Tomorrow we dock in Honolulu, probably by the Aloha Tower if past cruises are any indicator. We will be there for a bit over 11 hours. Having been here many times, we have no touring agenda at this port but will probably do some minor shopping.

Later … We get another time change tonight, it appears that Hawaii is three hours separated from the West Coast, at least while the mainland is on daylight savings. Hawaii opted out of time changes as its location somewhat near the equator means winter and summer days are of nearly equal length. I conclude that means in winter there is only a 2 hour difference.

Process Note

I just noticed the apparent posting time on the previous post and it seems to be “zero dark thirty” or some such. Please ignore this, my actual posting time was two hours earlier. 

In cruising across the Pacific, every 2-3 days we set our clocks back an hour. We’ve done so twice so far and will do it multiple times before reaching Sydney. There is little point in me continually resetting the time zone on my device, so I won’t. 

We live on ship time but I’ll leave the IPad on Pacific Daylight Time and some strange ‘times’ will be affixed to various posts.