Oligopsony

Donald Trump recognized something others had overlooked. The US market is so lucrative for exporters in other nations that they must have access, regardless of tariffs posed by our government. 

Exporters of high tech and luxury goods face what economists call a “oligopsony,” a market with few buyers which gives those buyers leverage over the suppliers. We had power we weren’t using, maybe didn’t even recognize we had, until Big Don decided to activate it. 

The evidence for this power is the rush by other nations to cut trade deals with the White House. Some have analogized this rush to the “prisoners’ dilemma.”

Left-wing Authoritarianism

Writing at PJ Media, Matt Margolis cites opinion research which finds radical views on the left, something called “left-wing authoritarianism” featuring an “assassination culture.”

The findings were stark: Some 38% of respondents said it would be at least "somewhat justified" to murder Donald Trump, and 31% said the same about Elon Musk.

When counting only left-leaning respondents, justification for killing Trump rose to 55% and Musk to 48%.

Are sentiments like these precursors to civil war? Or is it just the desperation of a movement being overrun by a successful, hyperactive opponent like Trump, as they watch their long-running, corrupt schemes being demolished by his ally Musk?

Close Spaces

Common sense about public transportation from the redoubtable Kurt Schlichter via X. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

All these people who love public transportation and trains and want to stick us in them could do more for their own cause by empowering police to lock up criminals and weirdos than anything else, but they’re ideologically unable to choose normal people over bad people and normal people don’t want to be trapped in a close space with bad people.

Please forgive Kurt’s run-on sentence, the thinking is correct. Elevators can be iffy, too. 

The Comfort Class

Americans don't like to talk about social class. If asked, something like 70% of us will answer we are "middle class." That answer is probably only correct for 40% of us.

Written for The Atlantic and out from behind their paywall courtesy of msn.com, comes an article talking about "the comfort class." What, you may ask, is "the comfort class?"

Our systems--of education, credentialing, hiring, housing, and electing officials--are dominated and managed by members of a "comfort class."

These are people who were born into lives of financial stability. They graduate from college with little to no debt,, which enables them to advance in influential but relatively low-wage fields--academia, media, government, or policy work.

Many of them rarely interact or engage in a meaningful way with people living in different socioeconomic strata than their own.

Nearly every aspect of society has been designed by people unfamiliar with not only the experience of living in poverty but the experience of living paycheck to paycheck--a circumstance that, Bank of America data shows, a quarter of Americans know well.

The haves are literally in a different head space than the have-nots.

Wealth is not the marker of the comfort class. Security is.

The entire article is worthwhile. Hat tip to RealClearPolitics for the link.

Two Recommendations

If you are concerned about the stock market plunge, you need to read what Bill Ackman has Xed about the tariff strategy. Hat tip to Power Line's John Hinderaker for the link. In Ackman's view, the market will recover in the next few months as countries rush to cut deals with the US to ease pressures on their economies.

Trump’s strategy is not without risk, but I wouldn’t bet against him. The more that markets support the President and his strategy, the higher the probability that he succeeds, so a stable hand on the trading wheel is a patriotic one.

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For RealClearPolitics, military historian Victor Davis Hanson writes a scenario for how he believes the war in Ukraine will end. He predicts a Korean-peninsula style "hot peace" following a ceasefire. Some of his thoughts:

Western leaders simplistically thought that sending more arms, money, and Ukrainians into the cauldron would eventually break Russia -- 30 times larger than Ukraine, 10 times richer, over four times more populous, and far less bothered by the mounting toll of its greater losses.

If and when peace comes, we can already foresee the misinformation that will follow: Trump deserves no credit. Zelenskyy remains the true hero. A now hollowed-out Russia was the real winner.

Clearly, nobody but Trump could coax, bully, and chivvy the hostile parties to make a deal ending the fighting. If he succeeds, we will have reclaimed the title, however briefly, of world hegemon - the essential power.

Remembering

Fox News has a story of a family who spotted two white deer in a herd they saw on an Iowa back road. The article goes on to differentiate true albino deer which have pink/red eyes, and so-called leucistic deer which can be white but have normal brown eyes.

This story resonated with me because, as long time readers will remember, some years ago the DrsC spent a month or two in the Santa Ynez valley each winter. The south coast area between Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo is beautiful.

We'd park our RV at a county park on a reservoir called Lake Cachuma and enjoy the SoCal winter weather. It was often shirt-sleeves warm in the afternoons. 

A herd of deer frequented a large ranch along CA 154 between the park and the picturesque little 'Danish' village of Solvang. For at least a couple of winters that herd had a white deer among the normal brownish gray ones. It was always a treat to see, and we noted the other deer didn't treat the white one as "racist." In the same vicinity, one winter we saw a healthy yearling black bear, and wild turkey flocks were common. 

The Ojai valley I grew up in is maybe 35 miles ESE of the Santa Ynez valley, or 65 miles by road. Similar climates, but Ojai runs to citrus groves and less wildlife while Santa Ynez is less developed, with vineyards and horses. Probably because it is farther from Los Angeles.

Saturday Snark

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Opportunity Time

A lot of Democrats are whining and complaining about Trump's tariffs. I haven't seen the claim elsewhere so I will make it here. 

What Democrats fear is that tariffs will function exactly as Trump claims, creating a manufacturing boom that will produce tons more jobs and wage gains for the blue collar workforce. When this happens the blue collar is going to vote for whoever will continue Trump's policies, including his tariffs. Thus, Democrats will be in a hurt. 

If I were a market player (I'm not), I would have sold big before Trump announced the tariffs - it wasn't a surprise - and tomorrow be looking to buy back in selectively. What happened was predictable and there was money to be made in trading actively.

Friday Snark

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Save Canada

At Instapundit, Stephen Green reposts something good originally Xed by Canadian Mark Reid. Reid doesn't know who created it. 

I wish Canadians well for I've visited Canada 10+ times and been from Newfoundland to the Yukon. I like it a lot.

Save Canada

Trump wasn't born in Canada.
Trump isn't Canadian.
Trump is doing what he believes is best for his country, the USA.
So why are we making this election about Trump?

The Liberals got us into this mess.
Not Trump.
Not Conservatives.
Not China.
Not Ontario - Not BC - Not Quebec!

The Liberals.

They gave us a 69-cent dollar.
They gave us broken healthcare.
They let in 4 million refugees without a plan.
They legalized hard drugs and watched our streets rot.
They doubled our national debt and blamed everyone else.

Trump didn't do any of that.
The Liberals did.
And now they want another term?

This election isn't about the USA.
It's not about Trump.
It's about Canada.
It's about change.
It's about making the Liberals pay at the polls…and giving Canada back to All!

Weird Aromatic Science

I bring you news of a RealClearScience article concerning the production and elimination of gas in your intestines, in other words, of farts. It is a quite accessible pop science article on how and why you produce gaseous emissions that - quite often - smell bad. My favorite quote:

However uncomfortable or embarrassing they are, farts are natural and a sign that your digestive system is alive. Quite literally, actually. It’s not just your own body that’s responsible for producing gases. Trillions of microbes live in your gut, helping you digest your food – and producing farts in the process.

All those happy little micro-critters along with us for both the ride, and a regular 3 squares. Pardon my indelicacy in bringing you this reminder of a bodily process of which we attempt to remain unaware. 

Our Ukraine Involvement

My favorite foreign affairs analyst - George Friedman - weighs in with a synopsis of a long article in the New York Times (behind paywall) concerning the US role in the Ukraine war. Bottom line: we were much more involved than we were led to believe, although short of boots on the front lines. Hat tip to RealClearDefense for the link.

Rather than call the NYT article a "leak," Friedman believes it was intentionally released in a way to be picked up by the Russian press. Implicit is the idea that Putin has been hiding from his own people exactly how involved we were, and how responsible the technologically inferiority of his military has been in their high casualty totals.

War is getting closer and closer to that depicted in the early Terminator films. The Ukraine war has been a laboratory of sorts for testing and proving new technologies of war, for both sides. It is likely, however, that we've benefitted more than they. 

The article reinforces Putin's claim that Russia is fighting "the West" rather than merely Ukraine. What remains inescapable is that Russia started the war, thought they could win it quickly and cheaply, and were proved quite wrong in that assessment.

Putin likely could have turned Ukraine into an ally if he'd emphasized honeyed words and benevolent policies. Instead he has created an implacable enemy, which nevertheless still lives and sits on his border like a gangrenous wound he has proven unable to excise. There is a lesson in this, if we're able to learn it.

Their “Roswell”

 A declassified CIA document recounts a low-flying saucer-shaped UFO shot down with a MANPADS by a Russian soldier out on maneuvers in Siberia. It crashed, five short humanoids got out, merged into one big ball, exploded and the result of that explosion turned some 23 soldiers into stone, two more who were somewhat shielded were spared. 

Supposedly the stony former soldiers and the craft were sent to an institute near Moscow for study, the Sun (U.K.) has the story. This sounds a lot like the Russian version of Roswell and Area 51, amirite?

Russians spoofing the CIA? The CIA spoofing the Ruskies? A Ukrainian reporter with too much time on his hands? Maybe even the real deal? 

Tariff Day

President Trump announced his new higher tariffs yesterday with considerable fanfare. Predictably most Democrats hated them, Republicans mostly liked them. Some details provided here.

The most important thing these will do is to get other nations to lower their tariffs and barriers on US goods, in the quite likely hope that Trump will lowers his in reciprocity. The other really important thing they will do is bring manufacturing for the US market. back to the US.

This will create US manufacturing jobs which tend to pay well. More importantly, reshoring manufacturing will increase the believability of our military threat, paradoxically reducing the likelihood we will have to actually take military action.

Going into World War II, the US had a big manufacturing sector which rapidly converted to producing the wherewithal for war, making the US famously “the arsenal of democracy.” We need to rebuild that capacity, and absolutely must produce vital pharmaceuticals and microchips in quantity here at home.

Why Too Many Fed. Workers

The federal government has too many employees. The way the civil service works, this was almost inevitable. 

The pay level a supervisor or boss gets in the civil service is related fairly directly to the number of employees he or she has directly and indirectly reporting to him or her. Grow the number supervised, grow the paycheck.

This gives every boss in the federal civil service an economic motive to justify the employment of additional subordinates plus subordinates of subordinates. Having successfully done so, the next step is a reclassification audit with hoped-for upgrade resulting, without changing job or employer.

Given how the system is designed, you’d be amazed if there were not too many employees.

Announcement This Afternoon

Today we get to find out how Trump will impose tariffs on foreign goods imported into the US.  Securities markets have been ‘nervous’ at the prospect. I have seen YouTube video of  a youngish Trump complaining of unfair tariffs, so his interest in the issue is no new thing.

In anticipation of this move, yesterday Israel cancelled all tariffs on US imports. If Trump chooses reciprocity, he should likewise impose no tariffs on Israeli imports, even if the switch was last-minute, giving him only one day notice.

At least some believe Trump will do a flat across-the-board tariff on all imports. We should know by this evening.

Off-year Voting Results

There were four things on the ballot in yesterday’s off-year election. Two in Wisconsin: a state Supreme Court justice and a constitutional amendment requiring voter photo ID. Plus two House seats in Florida. 

Republicans won three of the four, the two FL House seats which stayed Republican, and the voter ID requirement which passed. Democrats won the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, which of course is being spun by the legacy media as the most important of the four.

By my count, the GOP won three out of four. That is a decent night’s work, but a clean sweep would have been nicer still. 

Musk threw a ton of money at the WI judge election, to no avail. He isn’t a natural politician and WI is a purple state. Was it a referendum on Musk himself … maybe in part.

Kennedy on Injunctions

Go read the transcript of Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) questioning a nominee for Assistant Attorney General. In the manner of a kindly law prof conducting a Socratic master class on the law concerning nationwide injunctions, he gently demolishes the legal basis (hint: there is none) for the practice. 

With kind words he lays out the lack of constitutional or common law underpinning for district judges to issue nationwide injunctions. These should only occur in the case of class action suits.

I hope the Supremes see it as he does, they certainly should. However, Chief Justice Roberts is unreliably conservative.

Obsolete, Arrogant, and Parasitic

Writing for The Guardian - a Brit paper that's definitely never-Trump - a columnist pens an interesting view of the relationship between Europe and the US.

Washington considers Europe to be obsolete, arrogant and parasitic.

So, is that a fair appraisal? Let's consider the evidence, is Europe obsolete? It seems clear its great days of world dominance and empire ended nearly a century ago, and are unlikely ever to return. 

Is Europe arrogant? It is trying to force US companies to comply with its overly bureaucratic and stifling regulations. It's politics are post-democratic, having completely surrendered to the bureaucratic blob in Brussels. It is trying to force Net Zero on the world, when nearly everywhere not-Europe isn't buying what they're selling. 

Is Europe parasitic? It has allowed the US to provide their defense; most of its nations have token militaries. It has given up on tech leadership, and to a large extent on manufacturing. They're largely "retired on the job."

I conclude that whether or not Washington considers it so, Europe is actually obsolete, arrogant, and parasitic. They've decided hard work, long hours and having children aren't worth it. They're going to take it easy and enjoy life, be satisfied with less, and let the future take care of itself when the time comes.

Europe has chosen the path they're on, a choice they are free to make. It does not, however, deliver the great power status to which they were once accustomed and appear to still feel entitled. 

Another Politician Plagiarizing

Economist Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party in Canada, and thereby became PM. He has an impressive resume' and held high level positions in the Canadian and British governments 

He has called a "snap" election happening soon. Before the plagiarism accusations surfaced, Carney was favored to win the PM job in his own right. 

Someone ran his doctoral dissertation against a plagiarism checker. They found 10 or more examples of Carney using others' words without making clear they were borrowed.

Joe Biden was famous for borrowing other pols' speeches to give as his own, so maybe the bar is lower for politicians. Or more likely, Carney cut corners. 

Don't give his adviser's claim that the work is original too much credit. Not catching the plagiarism makes her look bad too. 

See this long column in Canada's National Post for multiple examples of Carney playing fast and loose with citation of others' works. I'd expect to see this kind of shoddy citation in undergraduate work, not in a dissertation.