Tuesday, September 30, 2025

The Businessman's Bias

President Trump has announced a 20 point peace plan for Gaza. He has gotten buy-in from European leaders and islamic leaders in the region, and he has gotten buy-in by Israel. It seems thorough, but it amounts to a Hamas surrender.

What he hasn't gotten so far is any sense Hamas is willing to give up on martyrdom and slink off into the twilight, leaving technocrats running Gaza. Trump says if Hamas doesn't sign on, he will okay Israel to keep killing until Hamas is no more.

What if Hamas says something like "Bring it, infidels" and fights to the death? Count on Hamas to try to ensure that their defeat kills as many non-combatant Arab women and kids as possible. Can Israel survive the disgust of the world community at the slaughter that will entail? 

I fear Trump has projected his desire for peace on the Gaza Arab population, when it's likely only a minority share his aim. After all, he projected that same desire on Russia's Putin, when it clearly wasn't shared by Vlad. 

If Trump has a weakness, it is that he believes a deal that will move both parties toward increased prosperity is everyone's top priority. Call it "the businessman's bias." It is evident many players esteem prosperity less than Allah's blessing, national or tribal dominance, revenge, or indeed some other goal.

I hope he succeeds, but hope is a lousy plan and I'm not optimistic.