Thinking about the Abigail Spanberger (D) win in Virginia yesterday, handily defeating Winsome Sears (R). VA is an interesting mix of two very different kinds of voters.
The DC suburbs of northern VA are loaded with federal workers, most of whom will be Democrats. The rest of VA is part of the old South, where a majority tends to be Republican these days.
What I’m curious about is turnout in those parts of VA which are not DC bedroom communities. Southern whites don’t elect a lot of black candidates. I can imagine them viewing the Spanberger/Sears contest as a choice between two unattractive candidates and not bothering to vote.
Four years ago Republicans Youngkin and Sears were elected when the hot issue in VA was excessive wokeness in the public schools. It may have gotten some fedgov worker-parents to vote Republican, albeit reluctantly.
The boys-in-girls’-locker-rooms issue isn’t so hot four years later. Fedgov workers missing shutdown paychecks is currently front and center.
A differential analysis of turnout in the two quite different regions of VA over the last two off-year elections will be interesting, if anyone does it. I add that postscript because those who think the answers will be unflattering may skip the analysis. I’m looking at you, Larry Sabato.
Later … The four wins Democrats notched in VA, NJ, NYC and CA all happened in states Harris carried in 2024, a year when Trump won big. Thus the outcomes were likely foreordained, and press speculations to the contrary were mere attempts to stir interest in otherwise uninteresting races.