Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Eleven Percent Vacant

Diana Olick covers real estate for CNBC, NBC's business network, and does a good job. On her Realty Check blog she reports that nearly 11% of U.S. housing units are standing vacant. In other words, one out of every ten. Wow, that is a lot.

What isn't clear to me is whether this represents overcapacity (more houses and apartments than we need) or underutilization (families doubling and tripling up to save money). Probably it is some of both.

During the housing boom firms built houses, condos, and apartments as fast as they could build, without much consideration for actual demand. Many families who couldn't afford to buy a house were nevertheless sold one. Now, during the Great Recession, those families, and others with little or no income, have moved in with relatives to save money.

When unemployed people eventually get jobs they will start to buy, rent, or otherwise occupy that "almost 11%." Until much of it is filled there won't be much demand for new construction.

No new construction means continuing high unemployment since construction is one of the main occupations that cannot be outsourced to China. Continuing high unemployment has political ramifications.