Sunday, March 18, 2012

The Real Question

Ron Brownstein writes for National Journal that the GOP primary season will grind on since Romney can't reach the blue collar GOP populists and Santorum can't reach the up-scale GOP adherents. He's probably right.

Let's carry the analysis one further step. Suppose Romney gets the nomination, as virtually everyone predicts he will. Let's also accept Brownstein's analysis of to whom Romney and Santorum appeal. Now let's look at the November election: Obama will face Romney.

Romney and Obama will compete for the educated voter, each will get a share. Neither truly appeals to the blue-collar Santorum voter. The question now becomes, will the Santorum voter vote for Obama, vote for Romney, or stay home?

I believe Santorum primary voters want to oust Obama strongly enough to vote for Romney in November, perhaps with a "lesser of two evils" mindset. We will know the answer in eight months.

Time was that Democrats attracted large numbers of blue-collar union voters to whom Santorum might appeal. Most of those are gone. Today's union members are largely white collar government employees who will not vote for the GOP.