Wednesday, September 3, 2014

A Logical Impossibility

The New York Times' Tom Friedman is normally sound on the Middle East; his latest column on the area has a major flaw which he dances around. On the one hand, Friedman writes:
I’m all-in on destroying ISIS. It is a sick, destabilizing movement. I support using U.S. air power and special forces to root it out, but only as part of a coalition, where everybody who has a stake in stability there pays their share and where mainstream Sunnis and Shiites take the lead by demonstrating that they hate ISIS more than they hate each other.
So, Friedman agrees with Obama we have to get Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds to agree to a unity government first. But earlier in the column he writes:
Power-sharing doesn’t come easy in a region where kinship and sectarian loyalties overwhelm any sense of shared citizenship. 
If that wasn't enough to keep a unity government from happening, Friedman chronicles:
The three civil wars raging in the Arab world today: the civil war within Sunni Islam between radical jihadists and moderate mainstream Sunni Muslims and regimes; the civil war across the region between Sunnis funded by Saudi Arabia and Shiites funded by Iran; and the civil war between Sunni jihadists and all other minorities in the region — Yazidis, Turkmen, Kurds, Christians, Jews and Alawites.
Let me summarize: Friedman favors military action if all the non-jihadis in the region will work together, except he says they almost certainly won't work together, cannot work together. So what do you recommend Tom? Do nothing?
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I am reminded of the scorpion which, unable to swim, hitched a ride across the Jordan River on a frog's back. Midstream he stung the frog who asked as he was going under, "Now we'll both die, why did you sting me?" The scorpion famously shrugged, "It's the Middle East." Suicide bomber is a reasonable career choice in the region.