Democratic pollster Stu Rothenberg
writing for the
Rothenblog makes the following prediction:
After looking at recent national, state and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave.
Right now, this cycle looks much like 2010, when Democrats with reasonable profiles got crushed in Republican-leaning and swing states.
And his conclusion, which he led off with:
I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
Meanwhile former New York Timesman Nate Silver
writes for his
FiveThirtyEight blog:
The path to a Republican majority is becoming a little clearer — and the problem for Democrats is that it runs through six deeply red states.
Republicans can win the Senate solely by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, states which voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an average of 19 percentage points in 2012.
That's tough country in which to run as a Democrat. Silver wouldn't be surprised if the GOP won a couple more besides these six. Meanwhile
CNN's John King
writes:
If that isn't a wave out there on the horizon, it is, at the moment anyway, a big, Republican-leaning ripple.
