Tuesday, August 23, 2016

It's a Puzzle

Virtually all the pundits say Donald Trump is running a lame campaign; you've read them, you know it's true. So if they're correct, why do several polls have Trump and Clinton essentially tied?

The UPI/CVoter poll shows them effectively tied, separated by less than one percent. The L.A. Times daily tracking poll shows them separated by even less: 0.2 percent. Hat tip to Drudge Report for the links.

Perhaps Trump is running an effective campaign that looks nothing like recent effective campaigns, misleading the pundit class. Alternatively, Clinton is such a loser her supposedly effective campaign isn't helping. Are both true?

Maybe the prognosticating class is giving insufficient weight to the rarity of one party winning the presidency for three terms in a row. In recent memory, Bush I following Reagan is the only example where it happened. The electorate normally seeks a course correction, after 8 years on one track.