The State of the Race

Matthew Dowd blogs about the presidential election for The Wall Street Journal. He identifies seven things he believes are true this cycle, and in the column explains each.

1. The equilibrium of this race has been set for many months and trades in a narrow range.

2. The choice between the two major-party candidates is a dissatisfying one for a majority of voters.

3. Neither major-party nominee has improved their favorability rating in the course of this campaign.

4. Neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Trump has expanded their “pro” vote since the primaries ended, and voters are primarily supporting them as a vote against his or her opponent.

5. Ad buying has no real effect on presidential races today.

6. Many in the media continue to cover the campaigns based on old models and anecdotes, reinforcing the legacy (and outdated) message of a binary choice.

7. The most important dynamic of this election continues to be the political environment and how the candidates match up to it.

The only one I'd disagree with is #6. Until a candidate of some third party wins a presidential election, I'm sticking with "the legacy message of a binary choice." My evaluation of Dowd's  "outdated" is it's possible, but unproven.

You could call this the "Who Do You Hate Least" election.