The evidence this evening is that Alaska Governor and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin can deliver an excellent political speech. The time she spent in media before going into politics didn't hurt. In other words, she is no Dan Quayle. Like other conservatives, I'm relieved and pleased.
Now we go forward. The historical evidence is that vice presidential picks seldom help a ticket much. As a woman GOP vice presidential nominee, Gov. Palin is a new phenomenon. History may not be a reliable guide.
Whether Palin will help convince many Clinton voters to switch parties is anybody's guess. My guess: yes and no. I doubt that she will attract many of Hillary's feminist followers. On the other hand, I believe her persona will appeal to the God-and-guns-loving blue-collar voters with whom Obama had trouble connecting.
The conventional wisdom is that voters mostly choose between the presidential nominees, this year McCain and Obama. We will learn in two months whether that wisdom remains conventional, or needs to be modified.
