Thursday, January 15, 2009

CA in Financial Toilet

See this Bloomberg article about the mess in California state finances. The basic issues are these: CA's income is heavily dependent on income and sales taxes, which are very cyclical, right now the cycle is headed down as are state revenues.

Both houses of the CA legislature are today reliably majority Democratic but also reliably less than 2/3 Democratic. CA has a constitutional provision that any tax increase must pass the legislature by a 2/3 vote. A minority larger than 1/3 can stymie any tax increase proposed by the majority; the Republican minority is larger than 1/3.

In the current situation, Republicans want the state to cut its spending to the level of its projected income. They won't vote for tax increases. Democrats, on the other hand, have promised their voters no cuts in state services and therefore wish to raise tax rates. Neither side will give an inch. Result: deadlock.

You might think the Democrats would go along with the Republicans, cut state services, and then run against those Republican-forced service cuts in the next election. In another state, that might work.

The legislature districts in CA have been so carefully gerrymandered that virtually every Republican seat is a "safe" seat. Majorities in those districts agree that the state should cut services to a level commensurate with state income. Likewise, virtually every Democratic seat in CA is a "safe" seat. Again, the result is deadlock.

Now you know more than you ever wanted to know about CA state politics and finances. If you follow the precepts of the famous fictional detective, Sherlock Holmes, you will do your level best to forget this knowledge unless it is somehow relevant to you.