Quote of the Day II

Carl Bialik, writing his Numbers Guy column for The Wall Street Journal, talking about the difficulties in forecasting over the last year:

The spate of cloudy crystal balls highlighted an uncomfortable reality about telling the future: It is hardest when it is most important.

Another home truth is this: What you really want to be able to predict is the changes in direction. That is, when the economy turns a corner in either direction. It is easy to say that we'll get more of the same, a prediction that is often true but not very interesting or helpful.