TNR's William Galston has looked at some recent polling and CBO data and put the best face on it a Democrat can manage. His point, voters don't much like either party. I suspect he is correct, see what you think.
The old Management professor in me views presidential reelection campaigns as "performance reviews." As a voter you may not have much trust in the opponent but you've four years of data about what the incumbent has done. You only vote for the incumbent if you want four more of what you've just had.
I find it hard to believe very many Americans will vote for four more years of Obama. From a Democrat's point of view, the prospects are "ugly." That said, I've been wrong before.