Rove: 2012 Political Predictions

Karl Rove, whose reputation as a political prognosticator is well-established, has issued his predictions in The Wall Street Journal for the 2012 election. Mostly, they are mainstream and I agree with them.

One prediction with which I take issue is Rove's belief that the turnout for the 2012 election will be greater than that in 2008. I expect the turnout to be lower than 2008 as disspirited Democrats and independents stay home and Republicans turn out in moderate numbers given their lukewarm response to the field of GOP presidential candidates. Population growth over the four years will not be sufficient to make up the difference.